Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Grid-Based Movement

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Grid-Based Movement Adventure game?

Adventure + Grid-Based Movement

Of 146 developers who shipped a Grid-Based Movement Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 266 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $39k, ×84 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 266 games are announced against 84 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 266 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Grid-Based Movement
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 146
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.3k → $1.5k → $3.0k → $1.1k → $898 → $1.2k → $836 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Grid-Based Movement: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 146
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $836 (exactly $836)
Top 25% $3.1k (exactly $3,118)
Top 5% $40k (exactly $39,757)
Developers, 2 yr 146
Released games 483
Announced 266
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Grid-Based Movement
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Grid-Based Movement; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, RPG, Strategy
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 1,376 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $840, 1 in 4 over $3.1k, 1 in 20 over $39k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 78 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 266 games are announced against 84 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Might & Magic X - Legacy older $29.99 3,178 65% 95k $2.9M (exactly $2,859,247) Ubisoft
Persona 5 Tactica older $59.99 1,526 74% 46k $2.7M (exactly $2,746,342) ATLUS
Legend of Grimrock 2 older $23.99 3,065 90% 92k $2.2M (exactly $2,205,880) Almost Human Games
Legend of Grimrock older $14.99 4,844 93% 145k $2.2M (exactly $2,178,347) Almost Human Games
NEO Scavenger older $14.99 4,437 89% 133k $2.0M (exactly $1,995,319) Blue Bottle Games
Low Magic Age · EA older $14.99 3,342 89% 100k $1.5M (exactly $1,502,897) Low Magic Studios
Zanki Zero: Last Beginning older $59.99 650 77% 20k $1.2M (exactly $1,169,805) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Talisman: Digital Classic Edition older $6.99 5,557 80% 167k $1.2M (exactly $1,165,303) Nomad Games
Etrian Odyssey HD older $39.99 963 88% 29k $1.2M (exactly $1,155,311) ATLUS
Lara Croft GO older $9.99 3,274 94% 98k $981k (exactly $981,218) Square Enix Montréal
Midnight Sin $19.99 387 82% 12k $232k (exactly $232,084) Faerin Games
Avernum 4: Greed and Glory $19.99 133 92% 4.0k $80k (exactly $79,760) Spiderweb Software
文字遊戯(日本語版) $34.99 74 90% 2.2k $78k (exactly $77,678) Team9, ESQUADRA,inc.
Guards II: Chaos in Hell $15.99 125 96% 3.8k $60k (exactly $59,962) Battlecruiser Games
GRIDbeat! $19.99 93 100% 2.8k $56k (exactly $55,772) Ridiculous Games
Takara Cards $14.99 112 83% 3.4k $50k (exactly $50,366) Post Mortem Pixels
Into the Emberlands $6.59 253 79% 7.6k $50k (exactly $50,018) Tiny Roar
The Darkness Below $16.99 78 80% 2.3k $40k (exactly $39,757) ELEFTHERIADIS SAVVAS
Puzzle Depot $19.99 61 100% 1.8k $37k (exactly $36,582) Laughing Manatee Games
Toroban $20.00 60 86% 1.8k $36k (exactly $36,000) Hebert Games LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.