Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Fishing

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fishing Adventure game?

Adventure + Fishing

Of 164 developers who shipped a Fishing Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 319 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.1k, ×8.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $910k, ×1933 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 319 games are announced against 91 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 319 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Fishing
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 164
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.4k → $16k → $8.6k → $3.6k → $13k → $10k → $1.8k (still earning) → $2.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Fishing: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 164
Bottom 30% $896 (exactly $896)
Median $4.1k (exactly $4,075)
Top 25% $69k (exactly $68,554)
Top 5% $918k (exactly $918,382)
Developers, 2 yr 164
Released games 368
Announced 319
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Fishing
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Fishing; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Simulation, Co-op
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 119,082 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $4.1k, 1 in 4 over $68k, 1 in 20 over $910k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 86 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 319 games are announced against 91 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DAVE THE DIVER older $19.99 142,662 96% 4.3M $86M (exactly $85,554,401) MINTROCKET
Spiritfarer®: Farewell Edition older $29.99 47,176 94% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,444,247) Thunder Lotus
DREDGE older $24.99 47,624 95% 1.4M $36M (exactly $35,703,713) Black Salt Games
Disney Dreamlight Valley older $39.99 22,027 92% 661k $26M (exactly $26,425,792) Gameloft
Coral Island older $29.99 21,828 89% 655k $20M (exactly $19,638,652) Stairway Games
Sun Haven older $24.99 22,069 79% 662k $17M (exactly $16,545,129) Pixel Sprout Studios
Dinkum $19.99 24,641 92% 739k $15M (exactly $14,777,208) James Bendon
How to Fish $7.99 57,661 95% 1.7M $14M (exactly $13,821,342) Dazed Games
Feed and Grow: Fish · EA older $14.99 20,750 78% 623k $9.3M (exactly $9,331,275) Old B1ood
DYSMANTLE older $19.99 11,022 91% 331k $6.6M (exactly $6,609,893) 10tons Ltd
The Quinfall $9.99 12,073 50% 362k $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) Vawraek Technology Inc.
Doloc Town $19.99 3,166 94% 95k $1.9M (exactly $1,898,650) RedSaw Games Studio
FlyKnight $5.99 10,432 96% 313k $1.9M (exactly $1,874,630) Wabbaboy
Nice Day for Fishing $19.99 2,609 86% 78k $1.6M (exactly $1,564,617) FusionPlay
Salt 2: Shores of Gold $19.99 2,182 85% 65k $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545) Lavaboots Studios
Ultimate Fishing® Simulator 2 $19.99 2,077 66% 62k $1.2M (exactly $1,245,577) Silent Bear Studio, SHINING GAMES
Farmer's Dynasty 2 · EA $24.99 1,225 72% 37k $918k (exactly $918,382) UMEO Studios
GONE Fishing · EA $9.99 3,016 90% 90k $904k (exactly $903,895) GONE Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.