Do I ship it?

Games › Adventure › Adventure + Deckbuilding

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Deckbuilding Adventure game?

Adventure + Deckbuilding

Of 227 developers who shipped a Deckbuilding Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 439 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×6.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $490k, ×1049 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 439 games are announced against 135 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 439 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Deckbuilding
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 227
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $32k → $14k → $9.0k → $11k → $3.6k → $4.2k → $3.0k (still earning) → $538 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Deckbuilding: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 227
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,992)
Top 25% $34k (exactly $33,566)
Top 5% $498k (exactly $498,351)
Developers, 2 yr 227
Released games 523
Announced 439
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Deckbuilding; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Card Game, RPG, Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 42,365 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $33k, 1 in 20 over $490k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 8 in 10 of the 101 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 439 games are announced against 135 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Inscryption 2021 · $81M Marvel's Midnight Suns 2022 · $31M 暖雪 Warm Snow 2022 · $19M Loop Hero 2021 · $15M Gloomhaven 2021 · $14M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Inscryption older $19.99 135,017 96% 4.1M $81M (exactly $80,969,695) Daniel Mullins Games
Marvel's Midnight Suns older $59.99 17,060 82% 512k $31M (exactly $30,702,882) Firaxis Games
暖雪 Warm Snow older $17.99 35,270 92% 1.1M $19M (exactly $19,035,219) BadMudStudio
Loop Hero older $14.99 33,816 92% 1.0M $15M (exactly $15,207,055) Four Quarters
Gloomhaven older $34.99 13,628 82% 409k $14M (exactly $14,305,312) Flaming Fowl Studios, Saber Interactive
Chrono Ark older $24.99 12,623 90% 379k $9.5M (exactly $9,463,463) Al Fine
Thronebreaker: The Witcher Tales older $19.99 15,665 89% 470k $9.4M (exactly $9,394,300) CD PROJEKT RED
The Bazaar $19.99 14,931 70% 448k $9.0M (exactly $8,954,121) Tempo
Magicraft $15.99 15,051 92% 452k $7.2M (exactly $7,219,965) Wave Games
Across the Obelisk older $19.99 10,689 80% 321k $6.4M (exactly $6,410,193) Dreamsite Games
Menace from the Deep $16.99 2,466 84% 74k $1.3M (exactly $1,256,920) Flat Lab
Cross Blitz $22.99 1,557 74% 47k $1.1M (exactly $1,073,863) Tako Boy Studios LLC
In Falsus $39.99 788 89% 24k $945k (exactly $945,364) lowiro
Black Jacket $14.99 1,751 91% 53k $787k (exactly $787,425) Mi'pu'mi Games GmbH
Death Howl $19.99 1,301 92% 39k $780k (exactly $780,210) The Outer Zone
Out Of Hands $17.99 1,322 93% 40k $713k (exactly $713,483) Game River
Dream of Corpse Lady $9.99 2,115 93% 63k $634k (exactly $633,866) HT3 Studio
OVIS LOOP · EA $16.99 1,083 88% 32k $552k (exactly $552,005) LIFUEL

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.