Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Cooking

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cooking Adventure game?

Adventure + Cooking

Of 157 developers who shipped a Cooking Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 370 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×11 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×2254 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 370 games are announced against 91 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 370 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Cooking
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 157
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.3k → $13k → $6.6k → $15k → $18k → $7.8k → $1.4k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Cooking: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 157
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Median $5.4k (exactly $5,397)
Top 25% $47k (exactly $47,218)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,070,572)
Developers, 2 yr 157
Released games 343
Announced 370
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Cooking
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Cooking; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Crafting, Exploration
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 39,550 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $5.4k, 1 in 4 over $47k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 84 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 370 games are announced against 91 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Disney Dreamlight Valley older $39.99 22,027 92% 661k $26M (exactly $26,425,792) Gameloft
Sun Haven older $24.99 22,069 79% 662k $17M (exactly $16,545,129) Pixel Sprout Studios
The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty older $9.99 49,765 94% 1.5M $15M (exactly $14,914,570) 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame)
Hello Kitty Island Adventure $39.99 9,637 93% 289k $12M (exactly $11,561,509) Sunblink
Dungeon Munchies older $19.99 6,596 97% 198k $4.0M (exactly $3,955,621) maJAJa
Ale & Tale Tavern older $14.99 8,692 88% 261k $3.9M (exactly $3,908,792) Scienart Games
The Quinfall $9.99 12,073 50% 362k $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) Vawraek Technology Inc.
Wanderstop $24.99 2,938 92% 88k $2.2M (exactly $2,202,619) Ivy Road
Immortal Life older $16.99 3,853 79% 116k $2.0M (exactly $1,963,874) YiFang Studio
Doloc Town $19.99 3,166 94% 95k $1.9M (exactly $1,898,650) RedSaw Games Studio
Winter Burrow $19.99 2,838 89% 85k $1.7M (exactly $1,701,949) Pine Creek Games
Kaiju Princess 2 $17.99 3,107 96% 93k $1.7M (exactly $1,676,848) PantyParrot
Aeruta $19.99 2,391 94% 72k $1.4M (exactly $1,433,883) FromDawn Games
Bloomtown: A Different Story $24.99 1,428 85% 43k $1.1M (exactly $1,070,572) Lazy Bear Games, Different Sense Games
Shin chan: Shiro and the Coal Town $29.99 837 95% 25k $753k (exactly $753,049) h.a.n.d., Inc.
Card Survival: Fantasy Forest · EA $21.99 1,135 76% 34k $749k (exactly $748,760) WinterSpring Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.