Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Collectathon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Adventure game?

Adventure + Collectathon

Of 541 developers who shipped a Collectathon Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 844 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $230k, ×499 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 844 games are announced against 306 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 844 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Collectathon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 541
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $1.5k → $2.2k → $898 → $2.0k → $1.3k → $719 (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Collectathon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 541
Bottom 30% $298 (exactly $298)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,169)
Top 25% $9.7k (exactly $9,730)
Top 5% $237k (exactly $236,881)
Developers, 2 yr 541
Released games 1,616
Announced 844
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Collectathon; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Action
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Colorful, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 31,445 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $9.7k, 1 in 20 over $230k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 337 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 844 games are announced against 306 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Temtem older $44.99 31,263 82% 938k $42M (exactly $42,195,671) Crema
A Hat in Time older $29.99 42,863 97% 1.3M $39M (exactly $38,563,841) Gears for Breakfast
Spyro™ Reignited Trilogy older $39.99 14,211 92% 426k $17M (exactly $17,048,937) Toys for Bob, Iron Galaxy Studios
SpongeBob SquarePants: Battle for Bikini Bottom - Rehydrated older $29.99 14,439 94% 433k $13M (exactly $12,990,768) Purple Lamp
Travellers Rest · EA older $17.99 16,538 87% 496k $8.9M (exactly $8,925,559) Isolated Games
LEGO® Batman™: The Videogame older $19.99 12,850 89% 386k $7.7M (exactly $7,706,145) Traveller's Tales
Supraland older $19.99 12,376 95% 371k $7.4M (exactly $7,421,887) Supra Games
LEGO® DC Super-Villains older $39.99 5,798 91% 174k $7.0M (exactly $6,955,861) TT Games, Feral Interactive (Mac)
Pumpkin Jack older $29.99 7,416 91% 222k $6.7M (exactly $6,672,175) Evil Raptor
Cassette Beasts older $19.99 8,976 94% 269k $5.4M (exactly $5,382,907) Bytten Studio
Atelier Yumia: The Alchemist of Memories & the Envisioned Land $69.99 2,534 64% 76k $5.3M (exactly $5,320,640) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Shelldiver $4.99 16,806 98% 504k $2.5M (exactly $2,515,858) Gagonfe
SpongeBob SquarePants: Titans of the Tide $39.99 1,151 93% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,380,855) Purple Lamp
Supraworld · EA $29.99 1,471 91% 44k $1.3M (exactly $1,323,459) Supra Games
DevilConnection $16.66 1,951 98% 59k $975k (exactly $975,110) ChaoGames
Shin chan: Shiro and the Coal Town $29.99 837 95% 25k $753k (exactly $753,049) h.a.n.d., Inc.
Welcome to Elderfield $17.99 1,334 87% 40k $720k (exactly $719,960) Chris Cote
Duskfade $29.99 793 91% 24k $713k (exactly $713,462) Weird Beluga
Sledding Game · EA $7.99 2,915 96% 87k $699k (exactly $698,726) The Sledding Corporation
Sapphire Safari · EA $12.99 1,653 92% 50k $644k (exactly $644,174) Kinky Fridays

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.