Games › Adventure › Adventure + Choices Matter
Should I ship a Choices Matter Adventure game?
Adventure + Choices Matter
Of 1,914 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 3,703 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×5.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $360k, ×773 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 3,703 games are announced against 1,134 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $540 (exactly $540) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.7k (exactly $2,697) |
| Top 25% | $23k (exactly $22,935) |
| Top 5% | $367k (exactly $367,016) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 1,914 |
| Released games | 5,658 |
| Announced | 3,703 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Adventure
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Adventure, Choices Matter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Multiple Endings, Visual Novel, RPG
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 500,218 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 1,043 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 3,703 games are announced against 1,134 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + SamuraiFair
- + FMVFair
- + PinballFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + SportsFair
- + GolfFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + Time AttackFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Baldur's Gate 3 2023 · $1.4B 
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition 2015 · $1.2B 
Hogwarts Legacy 2023 · $495M 
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey 2018 · $310M 
Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition 2022 · $297M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Baldur's Gate 3 | older | $59.99 | 755,010 96% | 23M | $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) | Larian Studios |
| | The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 823,357 96% | 25M | $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) | CD PROJEKT RED |
| | Hogwarts Legacy | older | $59.99 | 274,801 89% | 8.2M | $495M (exactly $494,559,360) | Avalanche Software |
| | Assassin's Creed® Odyssey | older | $59.99 | 172,149 89% | 5.2M | $310M (exactly $309,816,555) | Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai) |
| | Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition | older | $59.99 | 164,914 79% | 4.9M | $297M (exactly $296,795,726) | Techland |
 | Detroit: Become Human | older | $39.99 | 226,411 96% | 6.8M | $272M (exactly $271,625,277) | Quantic Dream |
 | Kingdom Come: Deliverance II | $59.99 | 144,558 93% | 4.3M | $260M (exactly $260,161,033) | Warhorse Studios | |
 | Dispatch | $29.99 | 174,624 97% | 5.2M | $157M (exactly $157,109,213) | AdHoc Studio | |
 | Disco Elysium - The Final Cut | older | $39.99 | 118,124 92% | 3.5M | $142M (exactly $141,713,363) | ZA/UM |
 | Kingdom Come: Deliverance | older | $29.99 | 143,303 83% | 4.3M | $129M (exactly $128,929,709) | Warhorse Studios |
 | Dragon Age™: The Veilguard | $59.99 | 41,393 67% | 1.2M | $74M (exactly $74,494,982) | BioWare | |
 | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon | $44.99 | 33,560 87% | 1.0M | $45M (exactly $45,295,932) | Questline | |
 | The Blood of Dawnwalker | $69.99 | 15,789 86% | 474k | $33M (exactly $33,152,163) | Rebel Wolves | |
 | Magical Girl Witch Trials | $29.99 | 29,869 96% | 896k | $27M (exactly $26,873,139) | Acacia, Re,AER | |
 | Star Wars Outlaws | $69.99 | 12,268 71% | 368k | $26M (exactly $25,759,120) | Massive Entertainment – A Ubisoft Studio | |
 | Avowed | $49.99 | 12,653 76% | 380k | $19M (exactly $18,975,704) | Obsidian Entertainment | |
 | Vampire: The Masquerade® - Bloodlines™ 2 | $59.99 | 10,443 55% | 313k | $19M (exactly $18,794,267) | The Chinese Room | |
 | Sultan's Game | $24.99 | 25,061 93% | 752k | $19M (exactly $18,788,232) | Double Cross |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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