Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Card Battler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Card Battler Adventure game?

Adventure + Card Battler

Of 212 developers who shipped a Card Battler Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 360 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.8k, ×5.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×707 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 360 games are announced against 119 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 360 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Card Battler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 212
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.6k → $19k → $12k → $6.3k → $7.8k → $4.0k → $3.3k (still earning) → $148 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Card Battler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 212
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $2.8k (exactly $2,792)
Top 25% $31k (exactly $30,738)
Top 5% $336k (exactly $335,866)
Developers, 2 yr 212
Released games 550
Announced 360
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Card Battler
effort 3 / 10 · high · card rules plus simple encounter logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Card Battler; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Card Game, RPG, Strategy
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 30,154 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.8k, 1 in 4 over $30k, 1 in 20 over $330k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 123 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 360 games are announced against 119 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Inscryption older $19.99 135,017 96% 4.1M $81M (exactly $80,969,695) Daniel Mullins Games
Marvel's Midnight Suns older $59.99 17,060 82% 512k $31M (exactly $30,702,882) Firaxis Games
Chrono Ark older $24.99 12,623 90% 379k $9.5M (exactly $9,463,463) Al Fine
The Bazaar $19.99 14,931 70% 448k $9.0M (exactly $8,954,121) Tempo
Across the Obelisk older $19.99 10,689 80% 321k $6.4M (exactly $6,410,193) Dreamsite Games
Depersonalization older $19.99 6,041 92% 181k $3.6M (exactly $3,622,788) MeowNature
One Step From Eden older $19.99 6,039 94% 181k $3.6M (exactly $3,621,588) Thomas Moon Kang
Gordian Quest older $19.99 5,259 88% 158k $3.2M (exactly $3,153,822) Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holding… (Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holdings Pte Ltd)
Yu-Gi-Oh! Legacy of the Duelist older $19.99 4,452 83% 134k $2.7M (exactly $2,669,864) Other Ocean Interactive
Roguebook older $24.99 3,446 84% 103k $2.6M (exactly $2,583,466) Abrakam Entertainment SA
Drop Duchy $14.99 2,962 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,332,011) Sleepy Mill Studio
Menace from the Deep $16.99 2,466 84% 74k $1.3M (exactly $1,256,920) Flat Lab
Cross Blitz $22.99 1,557 74% 47k $1.1M (exactly $1,073,863) Tako Boy Studios LLC
Black Jacket $14.99 1,751 91% 53k $787k (exactly $787,425) Mi'pu'mi Games GmbH
Death Howl $19.99 1,301 92% 39k $780k (exactly $780,210) The Outer Zone
Out Of Hands $17.99 1,322 93% 40k $713k (exactly $713,483) Game River
Dream of Corpse Lady $9.99 2,115 93% 63k $634k (exactly $633,866) HT3 Studio
Knights in Tight Spaces $19.99 831 69% 25k $498k (exactly $498,351) Ground Shatter
Stray Path $14.99 918 73% 28k $413k (exactly $412,825) zidong games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.