Do I ship it?

Games › Adventure › Adventure + Bullet Heaven

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Bullet Heaven Adventure game?

Adventure + Bullet Heaven

Of 61 developers who shipped a Bullet Heaven Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 91 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.4k, ×9.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $510k, ×1078 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 91 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 91 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Bullet Heaven
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 61
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $102k → $22k → $13k → $22k → $3.3k (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Bullet Heaven: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 61
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $4.4k (exactly $4,404)
Top 25% $32k (exactly $31,625)
Top 5% $512k (exactly $512,045)
Developers, 2 yr 61
Released games 77
Announced 91
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.89

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 160% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Bullet Heaven
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Bullet Heaven; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelike, Action Roguelike
Price point
$6.89 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.89.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 12,372 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $4.4k, 1 in 4 over $31k, 1 in 20 over $510k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 6 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 91 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Neon Abyss 2020 · $19M R.I.P. - Reincarnation Insurance Program 2026 · $1.2M Greedland 2025 · $1.1M I Am Legion: Stand Survivors 2025 · $656k Cultivation Story: Reincarnation 2023 · $598k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Neon Abyss older $31.49 19,709 86% 591k $19M (exactly $18,619,092) Veewo Games
R.I.P. - Reincarnation Insurance Program $14.99 2,727 76% 82k $1.2M (exactly $1,226,332) WarmCore Studio
Greedland $12.99 2,919 83% 88k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,534) VaMP He
I Am Legion: Stand Survivors $8.99 2,432 82% 73k $656k (exactly $655,910) JA Game Studio
Cultivation Story: Reincarnation older $9.99 1,994 92% 60k $598k (exactly $597,602) Chi Entertainment Corp.
Reality Break $24.99 683 80% 20k $512k (exactly $512,045) Element Games, LLC
Shadow Dungeon $9.99 1,387 78% 42k $416k (exactly $415,684) OO Cat
The Knight Witch older $19.99 643 72% 19k $386k (exactly $385,607) Super Mega Team
Dark Light: Survivor · EA $16.99 346 75% 10k $176k (exactly $176,356) Mirari&Co.
Keeper's Toll $6.99 668 88% 20k $140k (exactly $140,080) Stingbot Games
Hand of Fate: Hordes · EA $11.99 312 79% 9.4k $112k (exactly $112,226) Spitfire Interactive
Shard Squad $6.99 512 82% 15k $107k (exactly $107,366) The Root Studios
Ketz: Galactic Overlords · EA $8.99 386 71% 12k $104k (exactly $104,104) Keep Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.