Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade Adventure game?

Adventure + Arcade

Of 1,212 developers who shipped an Arcade Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,461 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $89k, ×188 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 1,461 games are announced against 667 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 1,461 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,212
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.1k → $891 → $899 → $599 → $418 → $657 → $449 (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,212
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $2.9k (exactly $2,876)
Top 5% $89k (exactly $89,206)
Developers, 2 yr 1,212
Released games 4,579
Announced 1,461
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Arcade; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 84,674 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $450, 1 in 4 over $2.8k, 1 in 20 over $89k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 737 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,461 games are announced against 667 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Forza Horizon 5 older $59.99 260,218 89% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,314,335) Playground Games
Need for Speed™ Heat older $69.99 128,933 84% 3.9M $271M (exactly $270,720,620) Ghost Games
Need for Speed™ Unbound older $69.99 49,862 61% 1.5M $105M (exactly $104,695,241) Criterion Games
The Crew™ 2 older $29.99 86,533 78% 2.6M $78M (exactly $77,853,740) Ivory Tower
Street Fighter™ 6 older $39.99 49,952 81% 1.5M $60M (exactly $59,927,414) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Castle Crashers® older $14.99 109,654 96% 3.3M $49M (exactly $49,311,404) The Behemoth
Need for Speed™ older $29.99 25,443 69% 763k $23M (exactly $22,891,067) Ghost Games
Broforce older $14.99 49,512 96% 1.5M $22M (exactly $22,265,546) Free Lives
Psychonauts 2 older $59.99 12,333 95% 370k $22M (exactly $22,195,700) Double Fine Productions
ONE PIECE: PIRATE WARRIORS 4 older $39.99 17,281 91% 518k $21M (exactly $20,732,016) Koei Tecmo
Tower Unite $19.99 16,237 89% 487k $9.7M (exactly $9,737,329) PixelTail Games
Haste $19.99 12,690 92% 381k $7.6M (exactly $7,610,193) Landfall
Absolum $24.99 9,399 91% 282k $7.0M (exactly $7,046,430) Dotemu, Guard Crush Games, Supamonks
UNBEATABLE $27.99 6,552 92% 197k $5.5M (exactly $5,501,714) D-CELL GAMES
UFO 50 $24.99 7,134 94% 214k $5.3M (exactly $5,348,360) Mossmouth
Invincible VS $49.99 3,031 76% 91k $4.5M (exactly $4,545,591) Quarter Up
The Coin Game $19.99 5,647 92% 169k $3.4M (exactly $3,386,506) devotid
Shelldiver $4.99 16,806 98% 504k $2.5M (exactly $2,515,858) Gagonfe
Path of Kung Fu $14.99 4,880 72% 146k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,536) 游鲤化龙工作室
MARVEL Cosmic Invasion $29.99 2,298 88% 69k $2.1M (exactly $2,067,511) Tribute Games Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.