Do I ship it?

GamesAction RPGAction RPG + Turn-Based Strategy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Strategy Action RPG?

Action RPG + Turn-Based Strategy

Of 51 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Strategy Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 95 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×0.5 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270. 95 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper, while revenue is down 10% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 95 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Turn-Based Strategy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 51
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $1.8k → $3.2k → $479 → $2.5k → $899 → $2.8k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Turn-Based Strategy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 51
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $6.0k (exactly $5,992)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,277,787)
Developers, 2 yr 51
Released games 181
Announced 95
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG, Turn-Based Strategy; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Strategy
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 36,328 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $720, 1 in 4 over $5.9k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 9 in 10 of the 36 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 95 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Metaphor: ReFantazio $69.99 25,224 89% 757k $53M (exactly $52,962,833) ATLUS
Wandering Sword older $24.99 37,034 94% 1.1M $28M (exactly $27,764,390) The Swordman Studio
Wasteland 2: Director's Cut older $29.99 4,664 82% 140k $4.2M (exactly $4,196,201) inXile Entertainment
Heroes' Vow: Three Kingdoms · EA $19.99 6,652 88% 200k $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204) Free Wing
SteamWorld Heist II older $29.99 2,201 93% 66k $2.0M (exactly $1,980,240) Thunderful Development
Disgaea 7: Vows of the Virtueless older $59.99 913 74% 27k $1.6M (exactly $1,643,126) Nippon Ichi Software, Inc., Systemsoft… (Nippon Ichi Software, Inc., Systemsoft beta, Inc.)
The Legend of Heroes: Trails beyond the Horizon $59.99 710 93% 21k $1.3M (exactly $1,277,787) Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH
Classified: France '44 older $39.99 844 70% 25k $1.0M (exactly $1,012,547) Absolutely Games
Worldless older $19.99 1,558 94% 47k $934k (exactly $934,333) Noname Studios
Labyrinth of Galleria: The Moon Society older $49.99 553 82% 17k $829k (exactly $829,334) Nippon Ichi Software, Inc.
再刷一把2:金色传说 $9.99 2,748 44% 82k $824k (exactly $823,576) 滑稽工作室
Goblin Dungeons $17.99 291 83% 8.7k $157k (exactly $157,053) Loolust
Godslayer Arena · EA $14.99 257 76% 7.7k $116k (exactly $115,573) Hippo Rider Games
The Crazy Hyper-Dungeon Chronicles $9.99 233 78% 7.0k $70k (exactly $69,830) Fix-a-Bug
Sin Slayers: Reign of The 8th $19.99 59 64% 1.8k $35k (exactly $35,382) Goonswarm Games
Aisha’s Futa Diaries $11.99 96 82% 2.9k $35k (exactly $34,531) Tacos Store
Beat the Humans $4.99 58 74% 1.7k $8.7k (exactly $8,683) Dochungryest

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.