Do I ship it?

GamesAction RPGAction RPG + Turn-Based Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Combat Action RPG?

Action RPG + Turn-Based Combat

Of 103 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Combat Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 162 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 162 games are announced against 43 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper, while revenue is up 10% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 162 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Turn-Based Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 103
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $23k → $599 → $479 → $809 → $7.7k → $359 (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Turn-Based Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 103
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $6.3k (exactly $6,294)
Top 5% $825k (exactly $825,187)
Developers, 2 yr 103
Released games 317
Announced 162
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.49

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG, Turn-Based Combat; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Action
Price point
$7.49 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.49.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 224,650 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $600, 1 in 4 over $6.2k, 1 in 20 over $820k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 74 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 162 games are announced against 43 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
Metaphor: ReFantazio $69.99 25,224 89% 757k $53M (exactly $52,962,833) ATLUS
Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition older $49.99 34,157 83% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,225,253) Owlcat Games
Like a Dragon: Infinite Wealth older $69.99 16,339 90% 490k $34M (exactly $34,306,998) RGG Studio
Wandering Sword older $24.99 37,034 94% 1.1M $28M (exactly $27,764,390) The Swordman Studio
Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter $59.99 4,650 95% 140k $8.4M (exactly $8,368,605) Nihon Falcom
FINAL FANTASY® XIII older $15.99 16,314 74% 489k $7.8M (exactly $7,825,826) Square Enix
Ni no Kuni Wrath of the White Witch™ Remastered older $49.99 4,023 83% 121k $6.0M (exactly $6,033,293) LEVEL5 Inc., QLOC
Eiyuden Chronicle: Hundred Heroes older $49.99 3,164 75% 95k $4.7M (exactly $4,745,051) Rabbit & Bear Studios
Heroes' Vow: Three Kingdoms · EA $19.99 6,652 88% 200k $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204) Free Wing
The Legend of Heroes: Trails beyond the Horizon $59.99 710 93% 21k $1.3M (exactly $1,277,787) Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH
The Legend of Heroes: Trails through Daybreak II $59.99 669 83% 20k $1.2M (exactly $1,203,999) Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH
Wicked Seed $19.99 1,376 94% 41k $825k (exactly $825,187) Dead Right Games
再刷一把2:金色传说 $9.99 2,748 44% 82k $824k (exactly $823,576) 滑稽工作室
Swordhaven: Iron Conspiracy $24.99 783 75% 23k $587k (exactly $587,015) AtomTeam
Trails in the Sky 2nd Chapter $59.99 171 97% 5.1k $308k (exactly $307,749) Nihon Falcom

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.