Do I ship it?

GamesAction RPGAction RPG + Trading

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Trading Action RPG?

Action RPG + Trading

Only 13 developers shipped a Trading Action RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, SpiritVale, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 66 more are announced, ×9.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×0.9 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $2.1M, ×1427 the market median. Revenue is up 45205% on the market; 66 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 45205% on the market, 66 announced, ×9.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Trading
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5M → $756 → $1.2k → $11k → $383k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Trading: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,317)
Top 25% $232k (exactly $232,495)
Top 5% $2.1M (exactly $2,138,324)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 60
Announced 66
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45205% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 30%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG, Trading
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 58% positive over 6,742 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $230k, 1 in 20 over $2.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 66 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×9.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Avorion older $24.99 13,001 90% 390k $9.7M (exactly $9,746,850) Boxelware
SpiritVale · EA $14.99 4,755 48% 143k $2.1M (exactly $2,138,324) Baikun Interactive
Mega Man Battle Network Legacy Collection Vol. 1 older $39.99 1,290 87% 39k $1.5M (exactly $1,547,613) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Mega Man Star Force Legacy Collection $39.99 657 96% 20k $788k (exactly $788,203) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Mega Man Battle Network Legacy Collection Vol. 2 older $39.99 521 87% 16k $625k (exactly $625,044) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates $19.99 638 70% 19k $383k (exactly $382,609) ReCon Team
Alek - The Lost Kingdom · EA older $19.99 392 76% 12k $235k (exactly $235,082) Jessy Lemieux
Concubine · EA $14.99 517 81% 16k $232k (exactly $232,495) Upgrade Entertainment
The Viking Way · EA older $14.99 331 42% 9.9k $149k (exactly $148,851) Ice Lava Games
Taora : Survival · EA older $13.99 353 55% 11k $148k (exactly $148,154) Tulpar Games
Terror of the Seven Seas $14.99 108 78% 3.2k $49k (exactly $48,568) Cutthroat Games
Lost Paws $19.99 18 94% 540 $11k (exactly $10,795) Dungeoneering Studios
Farmsville · EA $3.99 11 100% 330 $1.3k (exactly $1,317) Farmsville Prod.
Market Street Tycoon Simulator $0.99 31 48% 930 $921 (exactly $921) Yusuf Islam Seyhan, Samet Acar
Hmph! Hmph! Yowai $14.99 2 50% 60 $899 (exactly $899) Rexz Kev
Rings of Zilfin $5.99 5 100% 150 $898 (exactly $898) Strategic Simulations

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.