Do I ship it?

GamesAction RPGAction RPG + Top-Down Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Top-Down Shooter Action RPG?

Action RPG + Top-Down Shooter

Of 138 developers who shipped a Top-Down Shooter Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 253 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.0k, ×1.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $440k, ×297 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 253 games are announced against 67 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 253 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Top-Down Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 138
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.5k → $1.9k → $1.5k → $3.8k → $3.1k → $450 → $2.2k (still earning) → $1.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Top-Down Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 138
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $2.0k (exactly $2,035)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,390)
Top 5% $446k (exactly $445,612)
Developers, 2 yr 138
Released games 395
Announced 253
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG, Top-Down Shooter; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Bullet Hell
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 30,934 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.0k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $440k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 79 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 253 games are announced against 67 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Ascent older $29.99 19,235 74% 577k $17M (exactly $17,305,730) Neon Giant
Darksiders Genesis older $29.99 10,379 82% 311k $9.3M (exactly $9,337,986) Airship Syndicate
Yet Another Zombie Survivors $14.99 14,123 91% 424k $6.4M (exactly $6,351,113) Awesome Games Studio
The Last Stand: Aftermath older $24.99 6,096 80% 183k $4.6M (exactly $4,570,171) Con Artist Games
Starcom: Unknown Space older $24.99 4,464 92% 134k $3.3M (exactly $3,346,661) Wx3 Labs, LLC
Killsquad older $29.99 2,839 71% 85k $2.6M (exactly $2,554,248) Novarama
Nine Parchments older $19.99 4,123 77% 124k $2.5M (exactly $2,472,563) Frozenbyte
Star Valor older $24.99 3,272 88% 98k $2.5M (exactly $2,453,018) Rafael Burgos
Tower of Babel: Survivors of Chaos $12.99 6,281 68% 188k $2.4M (exactly $2,447,706) NANOO
Nordic Ashes: Survivors of Ragnarok older $9.99 6,180 88% 185k $1.9M (exactly $1,852,146) Noxfall Studios
R.I.P. - Reincarnation Insurance Program $14.99 2,727 76% 82k $1.2M (exactly $1,226,332) WarmCore Studio
Relic Hunters Legend $19.99 1,101 65% 33k $660k (exactly $660,270) Rogue Snail
Arms of God · EA $11.50 1,871 88% 56k $645k (exactly $645,495) Dark Jay Studio
Reality Break $24.99 683 80% 20k $512k (exactly $512,045) Element Games, LLC
FatalZone $6.99 2,125 66% 64k $446k (exactly $445,612) Midhard Games
Dinotica $17.99 746 86% 22k $403k (exactly $402,616) XA Studio
RIFTSTORM · EA $14.99 659 70% 20k $296k (exactly $296,352) Confiction Labs, Agate
Castle Of Alchemists $14.99 618 80% 19k $278k (exactly $277,915) Team Machiavelli

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.