Do I ship it?

GamesAction RPGAction RPG + Time Manipulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Time Manipulation Action RPG?

Action RPG + Time Manipulation

Only 16 developers shipped a Time Manipulation Action RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Legend of Heroes: Trails through Daybreak II, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.1k, ×3.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×804 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 39 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 39 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Time Manipulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $0 → $6.7k → $1.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Time Manipulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $5.1k (exactly $5,066)
Top 25% $92k (exactly $91,749)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,203,999)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 37
Announced 39
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Time Manipulation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG, Time Manipulation
Price point
$11.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 2,489 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $5.1k, 1 in 4 over $91k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Legend of Heroes: Trails through Daybreak II $59.99 669 83% 20k $1.2M (exactly $1,203,999) Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH
Ascend to ZERO $11.99 867 82% 26k $312k (exactly $311,860) Flyway Games, Inc.
Ary and the Secret of Seasons older $39.99 134 64% 4.0k $161k (exactly $160,760) eXiin, Fishing Cactus
DragonLoop $8.99 567 91% 17k $153k (exactly $152,920) 沙因, 小阮
Retrace the Light $17.99 170 85% 5.1k $92k (exactly $91,749) Xiaming Game
Titans of the Past $24.99 108 83% 3.2k $81k (exactly $80,968) Devil's Dozen Games
XEL older $14.99 143 48% 4.3k $64k (exactly $64,307) Tiny Roar
Void -Dementia- older $14.99 29 58% 870 $13k (exactly $13,041) J2YSOFT
Get Up In The Night $6.99 52 98% 1.6k $11k (exactly $10,904) GUITN Studio
Timewell: Trail of Celestes older $17.99 20 85% 600 $11k (exactly $10,794) OZBER CIN
Remnants of the Rift $14.99 15 86% 450 $6.7k (exactly $6,746) Bromio
Paradox Guardians · EA $12.99 13 38% 390 $5.1k (exactly $5,066) Paraguard
Echobreaker $8.99 12 100% 360 $3.2k (exactly $3,236) Upstream Arcade
NUSNUR $4.99 16 100% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,395) Team PARAFOX

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.