Do I ship it?

GamesAction RPGAction RPG + Third-Person Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Third-Person Shooter Action RPG?

Action RPG + Third-Person Shooter

Of 111 developers who shipped a Third-Person Shooter Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 268 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, level with the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $2.3M, ×1564 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 268 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 268 announced, ×5.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Third-Person Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 111
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $750 → $1.3k → $2.9k → $2.2k → $1.5k → $1.9k → $359 (still earning) → $3.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Third-Person Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 111
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,468)
Top 25% $32k (exactly $32,384)
Top 5% $2.3M (exactly $2,343,562)
Developers, 2 yr 111
Released games 316
Announced 268
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG, Third-Person Shooter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, RPG, Exploration
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 50,549 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $32k, 1 in 20 over $2.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 62 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 268 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Fallout 4 older $19.99 290,555 81% 8.7M $174M (exactly $174,245,834) Bethesda Game Studios
Mass Effect™ Legendary Edition older $59.99 62,205 91% 1.9M $112M (exactly $111,950,338) BioWare
Mass Effect™: Andromeda Deluxe Edition older $39.99 16,741 73% 502k $20M (exactly $20,084,178) BioWare
EVERSPACE™ 2 older $49.99 12,040 85% 361k $18M (exactly $18,056,388) ROCKFISH Games
Resident Evil Revelations 2 older $19.99 25,446 78% 763k $15M (exactly $15,259,966) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Mass Effect (2007) older $29.99 14,871 93% 446k $13M (exactly $13,379,439) BioWare
Mistfall Hunter $24.99 16,045 53% 481k $12M (exactly $12,028,936) Bellring Games
Azur Lane Crosswave older $39.99 6,537 68% 196k $7.8M (exactly $7,842,439) IDEA FACTORY, COMPILE HEART, FELISTELLA
Little Witch Nobeta older $24.99 9,362 84% 281k $7.0M (exactly $7,018,691) Pupuya Games
VEIN · EA $19.99 11,539 87% 346k $6.9M (exactly $6,919,938) Ramjet Studios
The Killing Antidote · EA $29.99 7,512 88% 225k $6.8M (exactly $6,758,546) MetalStar Studio
SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream $59.99 2,021 64% 61k $3.6M (exactly $3,637,194) Dimps Corporation
M.A.S.S. Builder $24.99 3,729 85% 112k $2.8M (exactly $2,795,631) Vermillion Digital
Voidling Bound $24.99 3,126 92% 94k $2.3M (exactly $2,343,562) Hatchery Games
METAL GEAR SOLID 4: Guns of the Patriots - Master Collection Version $29.99 2,315 96% 69k $2.1M (exactly $2,082,806) KONAMI
IfSunSets · EA $19.99 2,284 74% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,369,715) POLYMORPH
KIBORG $24.99 1,221 84% 37k $915k (exactly $915,384) Sobaka Studio
MOBILE SUIT GUNDAM SEED BATTLE DESTINY REMASTERED $39.99 757 77% 23k $908k (exactly $908,173) Bandai Namco Forge Digitals Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.