Do I ship it?

GamesAction RPGAction RPG + Sports

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sports Action RPG?

Action RPG + Sports

Of 21 developers who shipped a Sports Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $330, ×0.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 38 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper, while revenue is up 2325% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 2325% on the market, 38 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Sports
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $861 → $1.5k → $9.0k → $1.2k → $1.0k → $327 → $5.5k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Sports: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $327 (exactly $327)
Top 25% $4.7k (exactly $4,676)
Top 5% $23k (exactly $23,377)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 130
Announced 38
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2325% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG, Sports; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action-Adventure, Adventure, RPG
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Anime, Cartoony
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 639 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $330, 1 in 4 over $4.6k, 1 in 20 over $23k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 38 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
CAPTAIN TSUBASA 2: WORLD FIGHTERS $59.99 330 50% 9.9k $594k (exactly $593,901) TAMSOFT CORPORATION
Tactic Boxing older $9.99 416 77% 12k $125k (exactly $124,675) Stately Eagle Games
NEOGEO POCKET COLOR SELECTION Vol. 1 Steam Edition older $39.99 55 90% 1.7k $66k (exactly $65,984) SNK CORPORATION, Code Mystics
Duck Life 9: The Flock older $9.99 190 83% 5.7k $57k (exactly $56,943) Wix Games
Neon Tail older $24.99 70 81% 2.1k $52k (exactly $52,479) Fei, Leo, Yang
BegieAde ~a lyric of lie and retribution~ older $13.99 65 63% 2.0k $27k (exactly $27,280) Planet Pandemic
Basketboy's Adventure $9.99 78 78% 2.3k $23k (exactly $23,377) greenteagame1
RPGolf Legends older $29.99 25 76% 750 $22k (exactly $22,492) ArticNet
Sapper - Defuse The Bomb Simulator older $9.99 73 34% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,878) Live Motion Games
Zombodesert older $49.99 12 91% 360 $18k (exactly $17,996) Gamesforgames
Ink Inside $9.99 43 95% 1.3k $13k (exactly $12,887) Blackfield Entertainment LLC
Combat Kart $12.99 14 100% 420 $5.5k (exactly $5,456) 01Game
Just Skill Shooter: Catacombs $9.99 17 64% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Gamesforgames
Surfers Code $12.99 12 100% 360 $4.7k (exactly $4,676) E Marx
Otaku VR: Sit-ups and Kisses · EA $9.99 6 100% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) LUO WENJUN
MEMOLOGY: Absurd racing $0.99 59 94% 1.8k $1.8k (exactly $1,752) Piece Of Voxel, Gamesforfarm
MEMOLOGY: ITALIAN MEME WAR $0.99 45 97% 1.4k $1.3k (exactly $1,336) Piece Of Voxel, Gamesforfarm
MEMOLOGY: ESCAPE OF MEMES $0.99 35 91% 1.1k $1.0k (exactly $1,040) Gamesforfarm, Piece Of Voxel

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.