Do I ship it?

GamesAction RPGAction RPG + Simulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Simulation Action RPG?

Action RPG + Simulation

Of 193 developers who shipped a Simulation Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 384 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $690, ×0.5 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180. 384 games are announced against 107 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper, while revenue is down 10% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 384 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Simulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 193
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.1k → $896 → $7.2k → $898 → $921 → $539 → $449 (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Simulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 193
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $693 (exactly $693)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $10,795)
Top 5% $558k (exactly $557,777)
Developers, 2 yr 193
Released games 651
Announced 384
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG, Simulation; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Adventure
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 30,901 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $690, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $550k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 121 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 384 games are announced against 107 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal older $19.99 190,184 56% 5.7M $114M (exactly $114,053,345) 鬼谷工作室
Kenshi older $29.99 98,451 95% 3.0M $89M (exactly $88,576,365) Lo-Fi Games
Assassin's Creed® Unity older $29.99 79,116 77% 2.4M $71M (exactly $71,180,665) Ubisoft
Maneater older $39.99 21,790 87% 654k $26M (exactly $26,141,463) Tripwire Interactive
Persona® 5 Strikers older $59.99 12,864 88% 386k $23M (exactly $23,151,341) ATLUS
EVERSPACE™ 2 older $49.99 12,040 85% 361k $18M (exactly $18,056,388) ROCKFISH Games
Moonlighter older $19.99 17,286 82% 519k $10M (exactly $10,366,414) Digital Sun
Avorion older $24.99 13,001 90% 390k $9.7M (exactly $9,746,850) Boxelware
ASKA · EA older $24.99 10,457 79% 314k $7.8M (exactly $7,839,613) Sand Sailor Studio
VEIN · EA $19.99 11,539 87% 346k $6.9M (exactly $6,919,938) Ramjet Studios
Heroes' Vow: Three Kingdoms · EA $19.99 6,652 88% 200k $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204) Free Wing
Promise Mascot Agency $24.99 2,569 96% 77k $1.9M (exactly $1,925,979) Kaizen Game Works
Mirthwood $24.99 2,242 69% 67k $1.7M (exactly $1,680,827) Bad Ridge Games
WolfQuest: Classic $29.99 1,401 90% 42k $1.3M (exactly $1,260,480) eduweb
JIANGHU CHRONICLES $17.99 2,046 70% 61k $1.1M (exactly $1,104,226) 一品阁
Duel Corp. · EA $24.99 1,251 71% 38k $938k (exactly $937,875) Dreameffect Entertainment
Return from Core $16.99 1,620 75% 49k $826k (exactly $825,714) 顽核社 FuncoreClub
Shin chan: Shiro and the Coal Town $29.99 837 95% 25k $753k (exactly $753,049) h.a.n.d., Inc.
Noble Legacy · EA $24.99 744 70% 22k $558k (exactly $557,777) Ultimus Rex LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.