Do I ship it?

GamesAction RPGAction RPG + Real Time Tactics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Real Time Tactics Action RPG?

Action RPG + Real Time Tactics

Of 63 developers who shipped a Real Time Tactics Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 120 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120. 120 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper, while revenue is flat on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 120 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Real Time Tactics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 63
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $1.6k → $12k → $5.1k → $899 → $240 → $479 (still earning) → $1.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Real Time Tactics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 63
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $15,840)
Top 5% $278k (exactly $277,915)
Developers, 2 yr 63
Released games 170
Announced 120
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Real Time Tactics
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG, Real Time Tactics; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, RPG, Strategy
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 6,916 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $600, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 42 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 120 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Kenshi older $29.99 98,451 95% 3.0M $89M (exactly $88,576,365) Lo-Fi Games
ZeroSpace · EA $39.99 1,161 78% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,392,852) Starlance Studios, Ironward
Weird RPG older $10.99 4,066 92% 122k $1.3M (exactly $1,340,560) yuzhen
JIANGHU CHRONICLES $17.99 2,046 70% 61k $1.1M (exactly $1,104,226) 一品阁
Legend of Mana older $29.99 1,132 78% 34k $1.0M (exactly $1,018,460) Square Enix, M2 Co., Ltd.
Dark Envoy older $29.99 783 69% 23k $704k (exactly $704,465) Event Horizon
Kingdom Under Fire: The Crusaders older $19.99 1,045 91% 31k $627k (exactly $626,686) Blueside
We Are The Dwarves older $14.99 1,072 75% 32k $482k (exactly $482,078) Whale Rock Games
武林志2 (Wushu Chronicles 2) · EA older $19.99 795 41% 24k $477k (exactly $476,761) JiangHu Studio
Huaxia: Warring States · EA $19.99 701 61% 21k $420k (exactly $420,390) 秦川汉渚
Castle Of Alchemists $14.99 618 80% 19k $278k (exactly $277,915) Team Machiavelli
Guidus Zero $14.99 609 75% 18k $274k (exactly $273,867) izzle
欺神弄鬼 · EA $9.99 802 91% 24k $240k (exactly $240,359) 猫台班子工作室 Cat Caboodle
Halluci-Sabbat of Koishi $7.99 701 91% 21k $168k (exactly $168,030) ZRIGN 地霊研究院
Wartorn $34.99 130 73% 3.9k $136k (exactly $136,461) Stray Kite Studios
SeaCret 1 · EA $39.99 99 61% 3.0k $119k (exactly $118,770) Dalas
Touhou Spell Carnival $49.99 49 77% 1.5k $73k (exactly $73,485) Idea Factory, Compile Heart, STING

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.