Do I ship it?

GamesAction RPGAction RPG + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle Action RPG?

Action RPG + Puzzle

Of 133 developers who shipped a Puzzle Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 271 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 271 games are announced against 72 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper, while revenue is flat on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 271 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 133
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.1k → $1.6k → $713 → $2.3k → $1.0k → $450 → $1.3k (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 133
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $9.3k (exactly $9,291)
Top 5% $330k (exactly $330,435)
Developers, 2 yr 133
Released games 393
Announced 271
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG, Puzzle; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, Action
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 32,876 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $900, 1 in 4 over $9.2k, 1 in 20 over $330k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 78 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 271 games are announced against 72 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hogwarts Legacy older $59.99 274,801 89% 8.2M $495M (exactly $494,559,360) Avalanche Software
TUNIC older $29.99 16,692 91% 501k $15M (exactly $15,017,792) TUNIC Team
Darksiders II Deathinitive Edition older $29.99 16,313 78% 489k $15M (exactly $14,676,806) Gunfire Games, Vigil Games, THQ Nordic
Shadows of Doubt $24.99 14,646 82% 439k $11M (exactly $10,980,106) ColePowered Games
CrossCode older $19.99 16,376 92% 491k $9.8M (exactly $9,820,687) Radical Fish Games
Darksiders Genesis older $29.99 10,379 82% 311k $9.3M (exactly $9,337,986) Airship Syndicate
Darksiders Warmastered Edition older $19.99 13,942 88% 418k $8.4M (exactly $8,361,017) KAIKO, Vigil Games
Fate Seeker II older $22.60 11,360 88% 341k $7.7M (exactly $7,702,080) JSL Entertainment
Fate Seeker older $21.09 11,930 90% 358k $7.5M (exactly $7,548,111) JSL Entertainment
The Killing Antidote · EA $29.99 7,512 88% 225k $6.8M (exactly $6,758,546) MetalStar Studio
Hell is Us $49.99 4,279 83% 128k $6.4M (exactly $6,417,216) Rogue Factor
Alabaster Dawn · EA $24.99 2,168 94% 65k $1.6M (exactly $1,625,350) Radical Fish Games
The Scourge | Tai Ương $19.99 1,192 93% 36k $715k (exactly $714,842) Rare Reversee, Beaztek
消失的航班,还有她她她!Lost in the secret! $19.99 602 89% 18k $361k (exactly $361,019) Humongous Pictures
Moon Mystery $19.99 551 67% 17k $330k (exactly $330,435) Cosmoscouts
沙雕之路 $10.00 1,039 96% 31k $312k (exactly $311,700) 馆叔
Under The Island $19.99 446 92% 13k $267k (exactly $267,466) Slime King Games
RUBATO $19.99 441 97% 13k $264k (exactly $264,468) dconn

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.