Do I ship it?

GamesAction RPGAction RPG + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Action RPG?

Action RPG + Perma Death

Of 82 developers who shipped a Perma Death Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 159 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.9k, ×2.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $350k, ×239 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 159 games are announced against 50 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 159 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 82
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.6k → $1.3k → $3.4k → $3.0k → $2.5k → $6.7k → $4.8k (still earning) → $3.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 82
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $3.9k (exactly $3,896)
Top 25% $35k (exactly $35,251)
Top 5% $358k (exactly $358,021)
Developers, 2 yr 82
Released games 234
Announced 159
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG, Perma Death; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action Roguelike, Action
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Isometric, Atmospheric, Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 125,975 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $3.9k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $350k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 32 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 159 games are announced against 50 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hades older $24.99 285,748 97% 8.6M $214M (exactly $214,225,276) Supergiant Games
Hades II $29.99 114,419 95% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,942,774) Supergiant Games
The Last Stand: Aftermath older $24.99 6,096 80% 183k $4.6M (exactly $4,570,171) Con Artist Games
SWORN $24.99 3,779 80% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,833,116) Windwalk Games
Hell Clock $19.99 3,535 82% 106k $2.1M (exactly $2,119,940) Rogue Snail
Caveblazers older $9.99 3,416 86% 102k $1.0M (exactly $1,023,775) Deadpan Games
ELDERBORN older $14.99 2,229 87% 67k $1.0M (exactly $1,002,381) Hyperstrange
God Of Weapons older $5.99 4,807 84% 144k $864k (exactly $863,818) Imagine Games
Tempest: Pirate Action RPG older $14.99 1,778 69% 53k $800k (exactly $799,567) HeroCraft
Spirit Realm · EA older $18.18 1,379 76% 41k $752k (exactly $752,107) 深圳市灵境互娱科技有限公司
Spark in the Dark · EA $16.99 1,174 87% 35k $598k (exactly $598,388) Stellar Fish
Netherworld Covenant $19.99 597 78% 18k $358k (exactly $358,021) MadGoat Game Studio
Ascend to ZERO $11.99 867 82% 26k $312k (exactly $311,860) Flyway Games, Inc.
9th Dawn Remake $15.99 514 86% 15k $247k (exactly $246,566) Valorware
Shadow of the Depth $14.99 448 69% 13k $201k (exactly $201,466) ChillyRoom
Starlight Revolver · EA $12.99 404 54% 12k $157k (exactly $157,439) Pahdo Labs
Tankenstein · EA $17.99 238 89% 7.1k $128k (exactly $128,449) Landship Games LTD

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.