Do I ship it?

GamesAction RPGAction RPG + Naval Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Naval Combat Action RPG?

Action RPG + Naval Combat

Only 17 developers shipped a Naval Combat Action RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×1.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $11M, ×7910 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 21 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 21 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Naval Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $656k → $49k → $2.2k → $2.4k → $249k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Naval Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $628 (exactly $628)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,399)
Top 25% $119k (exactly $118,770)
Top 5% $12M (exactly $11,849,225)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 38
Announced 21
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Naval Combat
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG, Naval Combat; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Open World, Action
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 8,481 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $11M.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 7 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii $59.99 6,584 88% 198k $12M (exactly $11,849,225) RGG Studio
Azur Lane Crosswave older $39.99 6,537 68% 196k $7.8M (exactly $7,842,439) IDEA FACTORY, COMPILE HEART, FELISTELLA
Skull and Bones older $29.99 4,650 65% 140k $4.2M (exactly $4,183,605) Ubisoft Singapore
Caribbean Legend older $39.99 2,860 74% 86k $3.4M (exactly $3,431,142) BlackMark Studio
Pixel Piracy older $14.99 5,713 65% 171k $2.6M (exactly $2,569,136) Vitali Kirpu
Sea Dogs: To Each His Own older $14.99 1,927 72% 58k $867k (exactly $866,572) BlackMark Studio
Corsairs Legacy - Pirate Action RPG & Sea Battles · EA older $19.99 1,094 74% 33k $656k (exactly $656,072) Mauris, Tech-5 UG
King of Seas older $24.99 603 57% 18k $452k (exactly $452,069) 3DClouds
Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates $19.99 638 70% 19k $383k (exactly $382,609) ReCon Team
Rise of Piracy · EA $15.99 520 77% 16k $249k (exactly $249,444) IrishJohnGames
Captain Bones : A Pirate's Journey $14.99 348 79% 10k $156k (exactly $156,496) World of Poly
SeaCret 1 · EA $39.99 99 61% 3.0k $119k (exactly $118,770) Dalas
Terror of the Seven Seas $14.99 108 78% 3.2k $49k (exactly $48,568) Cutthroat Games
Curse of Pirates $9.99 121 80% 3.6k $36k (exactly $36,264) Funky Parrot
Mystical Maritime Adventure $8.99 54 77% 1.6k $15k (exactly $14,564) Ze_Yu, 烟熏渔
Dragons Reef VR $19.99 4 50% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) Radoslaw Kutowinski
Pixel Pirates · EA $14.99 5 80% 150 $2.2k (exactly $2,248) Flickin Fun

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.