Do I ship it?

Games › Action RPG › Action RPG + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Action RPG?

Action RPG + Nature

Of 82 developers who shipped a Nature Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 197 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 47 developers shipped in the last year and 197 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 235% on the market, 197 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 82
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $42k → $1.3k → $2.2k → $839 → $179 → $210 → $599 (still earning) → $900 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 82
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,248)
Top 5% $753k (exactly $753,049)
Developers, 2 yr 82
Released games 226
Announced 197
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 235% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 11,469 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $300, 1 in 4 over $2.2k, 1 in 20 over $750k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 47 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 197 games are announced against 47 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

MONSTER HUNTER RISE 2022 · $96M Maneater 2021 · $26M Beast of Reincarnation 2026 · $7.5M Towers of Aghasba 2024 · EA · $1.7M Dinoblade 2026 · $1.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
MONSTER HUNTER RISE older $39.99 79,847 84% 2.4M $96M (exactly $95,792,446) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Maneater older $39.99 21,790 87% 654k $26M (exactly $26,141,463) Tripwire Interactive
Beast of Reincarnation $59.99 4,188 56% 126k $7.5M (exactly $7,537,144) GAME FREAK inc.
Towers of Aghasba · EA $29.99 1,904 67% 57k $1.7M (exactly $1,713,029) Dreamlit inc.
Dinoblade $19.99 2,420 90% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,451,274) Team Spino LLC
WolfQuest: Classic $29.99 1,401 90% 42k $1.3M (exactly $1,260,480) eduweb
Pine older $24.99 1,504 73% 45k $1.1M (exactly $1,127,549) Twirlbound
Robin Hood - Sherwood Builders older $29.99 1,020 68% 31k $918k (exactly $917,694) MeanAstronauts
Shin chan: Shiro and the Coal Town $29.99 837 95% 25k $753k (exactly $753,049) h.a.n.d., Inc.
Under The Island $19.99 446 92% 13k $267k (exactly $267,466) Slime King Games
Utawarerumono: ZAN 2 $39.99 88 82% 2.6k $106k (exactly $105,574) AQUAPLUS
Rewrite Harvest festa! $19.99 64 96% 1.9k $38k (exactly $38,381) VisualArts/Key
Rogue Labyrinth $14.99 74 98% 2.2k $33k (exactly $33,278) Tea Witch Games
Grimoire Groves $19.99 47 82% 1.4k $28k (exactly $28,186) Stardust

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.