Do I ship it?

GamesAction RPGAction RPG + Mystery Dungeon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Dungeon Action RPG?

Action RPG + Mystery Dungeon

Of 72 developers who shipped a Mystery Dungeon Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 114 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 114 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper, while revenue is up 45% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 114 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Mystery Dungeon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 72
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $27k → $4.8k → $718 → $809 → $899 → $1.6k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Mystery Dungeon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 72
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $8.5k (exactly $8,544)
Top 5% $274k (exactly $273,867)
Developers, 2 yr 72
Released games 186
Announced 114
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG, Mystery Dungeon; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Adventure
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 5,435 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $600, 1 in 4 over $8.5k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 37 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 114 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hammerwatch II older $24.99 1,871 60% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,402,689) Crackshell
ENDLESS Dungeon™ - Definitive Edition older $14.99 2,953 64% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,327,964) AMPLITUDE Studios
Boyfriend Dungeon older $19.99 2,105 91% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,262,368) Kitfox Games
Spark in the Dark · EA $16.99 1,174 87% 35k $598k (exactly $598,388) Stellar Fish
We Are The Dwarves older $14.99 1,072 75% 32k $482k (exactly $482,078) Whale Rock Games
Skull Horde $12.99 1,083 81% 32k $422k (exactly $422,045) 8BitSkull
EXD - Extra Dimensional $29.99 316 82% 9.5k $284k (exactly $284,305) Lords of Illusion
Guidus Zero $14.99 609 75% 18k $274k (exactly $273,867) izzle
Full Mojo Rampage older $12.99 524 85% 16k $204k (exactly $204,203) Over the Top Games
The World is Your Weapon older $9.99 646 97% 19k $194k (exactly $193,606) kagaya
Goblin Dungeons $17.99 291 83% 8.7k $157k (exactly $157,053) Loolust
Touhou ~Red Empress Devil. $8.99 438 70% 13k $118k (exactly $118,129) STUDIO POCO
Maid of Salvation $14.99 209 88% 6.3k $94k (exactly $93,987) ORANGE POPCORN
Warrior Maiden Lecia and the Lost Fortress $19.99 149 85% 4.5k $89k (exactly $89,355) Kuroto Zakka
Chained in the Backrooms · EA $2.99 933 68% 28k $84k (exactly $83,690) Task+ Studios
The Crazy Hyper-Dungeon Chronicles $9.99 233 78% 7.0k $70k (exactly $69,830) Fix-a-Bug

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.