Do I ship it?

GamesAction RPGAction RPG + Metroidvania

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Metroidvania Action RPG?

Action RPG + Metroidvania

Of 134 developers who shipped a Metroidvania Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 346 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.7k, ×3.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×926 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 346 games are announced against 83 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 346 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Metroidvania
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 134
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.6k → $3.9k → $2.2k → $3.9k → $22k → $1.8k → $6.5k (still earning) → $3.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Metroidvania: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 134
Bottom 30% $1.1k (exactly $1,079)
Median $5.7k (exactly $5,694)
Top 25% $40k (exactly $39,580)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,387,695)
Developers, 2 yr 134
Released games 351
Announced 346
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG, Metroidvania; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Exploration
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 34,684 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $5.7k, 1 in 4 over $39k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 8 in 10 of the 62 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 346 games are announced against 83 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ENDER LILIES: Quietus of the Knights older $24.99 43,092 93% 1.3M $32M (exactly $32,306,072) Live Wire, Adglobe
ASTLIBRA Revision older $24.99 30,262 95% 908k $23M (exactly $22,687,421) KEIZO
Blasphemous 2 older $29.99 16,808 91% 504k $15M (exactly $15,122,158) The Game Kitchen
TUNIC older $29.99 16,692 91% 501k $15M (exactly $15,017,792) TUNIC Team
Darksiders II Deathinitive Edition older $29.99 16,313 78% 489k $15M (exactly $14,676,806) Gunfire Games, Vigil Games, THQ Nordic
ENDER MAGNOLIA: Bloom in the Mist $24.99 17,143 95% 514k $13M (exactly $12,852,107) Adglobe, Live Wire
Death's Door older $19.99 19,330 93% 580k $12M (exactly $11,592,201) Acid Nerve
Salt and Sanctuary older $17.99 20,081 89% 602k $11M (exactly $10,837,716) Ska Studios
Tails of Iron older $24.99 13,116 87% 393k $9.8M (exactly $9,833,065) Odd Bug Studio
Hyper Light Drifter older $19.99 15,548 93% 466k $9.3M (exactly $9,324,136) Heart Machine
Mandragora: Whispers of the Witch Tree $39.99 3,026 75% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) Primal Game Studio
System Shock 2: 25th Anniversary Remaster $29.99 1,803 87% 54k $1.6M (exactly $1,622,159) Nightdive Studios, Looking Glass Studio… (Nightdive Studios, Looking Glass Studios, Irrational Games)
SiNiSistar 2 $14.99 3,545 90% 106k $1.6M (exactly $1,594,186) Uu
GRIME II $27.99 1,892 86% 57k $1.6M (exactly $1,588,712) Clover Bite
Kotama and Academy Citadel $19.99 2,542 80% 76k $1.5M (exactly $1,524,437) Atomstring Games
Tails of Iron 2: Whiskers of Winter $24.99 1,851 79% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,387,695) Odd Bug Studio
AWAKEN - Astral Blade $19.99 1,121 82% 34k $672k (exactly $672,264) Dark Pigeon Games
KYOTO XANADU -the Blooming Phantom- $54.99 403 78% 12k $665k (exactly $664,829) Nihon Falcom
BLADECHIMERA $14.99 1,358 88% 41k $611k (exactly $610,693) Team Ladybug, WSS playground

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.