Do I ship it?

Games › Action RPG › Action RPG + Management

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Management Action RPG?

Action RPG + Management

Of 42 developers who shipped a Management Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 136 more are announced, ×5.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.3k, ×5.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $660; 1 in 20 cleared $1.9M, ×1286 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 136 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 136 announced, ×5.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Management
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 42
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.9k → $180 → $13k → $1.8k → $8.3k → $20k → $659 (still earning) → $120k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Management: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 42
Bottom 30% $659 (exactly $659)
Median $8.3k (exactly $8,342)
Top 25% $89k (exactly $88,688)
Top 5% $1.9M (exactly $1,925,979)
Developers, 2 yr 42
Released games 121
Announced 136
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Management
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG, Management; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Simulation, Exploration
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 15,602 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $660, median $8.3k, 1 in 4 over $88k, 1 in 20 over $1.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $660. 6 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 136 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal 2023 · $114M Kenshi 2018 · $89M Moonlighter 2018 · $10M Avorion 2020 · $9.7M Made in Abyss: Binary Star Falling into Darkness 2022 · $4.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal older $19.99 190,184 56% 5.7M $114M (exactly $114,053,345) 鬼谷工作室
Kenshi older $29.99 98,451 95% 3.0M $89M (exactly $88,576,365) Lo-Fi Games
Moonlighter older $19.99 17,286 82% 519k $10M (exactly $10,366,414) Digital Sun
Avorion older $24.99 13,001 90% 390k $9.7M (exactly $9,746,850) Boxelware
Made in Abyss: Binary Star Falling into Darkness older $59.99 2,650 79% 80k $4.8M (exactly $4,769,205) Chime Corporation
Recettear: An Item Shop's Tale older $19.99 6,684 95% 201k $4.0M (exactly $4,008,395) EasyGameStation
Pax Autocratica · EA $29.99 3,202 91% 96k $2.9M (exactly $2,880,839) Multiverse
Moonlighter 2: The Endless Vault $29.99 3,146 80% 94k $2.8M (exactly $2,830,456) Digital Sun
Promise Mascot Agency $24.99 2,569 96% 77k $1.9M (exactly $1,925,979) Kaizen Game Works
Saleblazers · EA older $29.99 1,974 78% 59k $1.8M (exactly $1,776,008) AIRSTRAFE INTERACTIVE
Mirthwood $24.99 2,242 69% 67k $1.7M (exactly $1,680,827) Bad Ridge Games
Metal Slug Tactics $24.99 1,152 76% 35k $864k (exactly $863,654) Leikir Studio
Noble Legacy · EA $24.99 744 70% 22k $558k (exactly $557,777) Ultimus Rex LLC
Fell & Sell $9.99 1,428 84% 43k $428k (exactly $427,972) Art Games Studio S.A.
Huaxia: Warring States · EA $19.99 701 61% 21k $420k (exactly $420,390) 秦川汉渚
Tavern Legends $24.99 160 91% 4.8k $120k (exactly $119,952) CROWFORGE Games
The Last FARMER $12.99 258 56% 7.7k $101k (exactly $100,543) Geekon

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.