Do I ship it?

GamesAction RPGAction RPG + Loot

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Loot Action RPG?

Action RPG + Loot

Of 238 developers who shipped a Loot Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 494 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×3.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $990; 1 in 20 cleared $2.1M, ×1415 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 494 games are announced against 147 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.6 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 494 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Loot
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 238
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $1.8k → $7.6k → $4.1k → $5.5k → $7.2k → $3.6k (still earning) → $3.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Loot: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 238
Bottom 30% $987 (exactly $987)
Median $5.4k (exactly $5,395)
Top 25% $92k (exactly $92,008)
Top 5% $2.1M (exactly $2,119,940)
Developers, 2 yr 238
Released games 597
Announced 494
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG, Loot; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Hack and Slash
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 329,312 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $990, median $5.4k, 1 in 4 over $92k, 1 in 20 over $2.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $990. 7 in 10 of the 103 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 494 games are announced against 147 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Path of Exile 2 · EA $29.99 167,730 76% 5.0M $151M (exactly $150,906,681) Grinding Gear Games
Borderlands 2 older $19.99 210,364 89% 6.3M $126M (exactly $126,155,291) Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (L… (Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Borderlands 4 $69.99 57,874 59% 1.7M $122M (exactly $121,518,038) Gearbox Software
Last Epoch older $34.99 106,364 76% 3.2M $112M (exactly $111,650,291) Eleventh Hour Games
Diablo® IV older $49.99 58,668 69% 1.8M $88M (exactly $87,984,400) Blizzard Entertainment, Inc.
Grim Dawn older $24.99 92,979 93% 2.8M $70M (exactly $69,706,356) Crate Entertainment
Nioh: Complete Edition older $49.99 29,580 78% 887k $44M (exactly $44,361,126) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel older $39.99 31,771 79% 953k $38M (exactly $38,115,669) 2K Australia, Gearbox Software, Aspyr (… (2K Australia, Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Linux))
Wolcen: Lords of Mayhem older $19.99 61,837 55% 1.9M $37M (exactly $37,083,649) WOLCEN Studio
Warhammer 40,000: Inquisitor - Martyr older $49.99 19,552 75% 587k $29M (exactly $29,322,134) NeocoreGames
Witchfire · EA $39.99 17,131 91% 514k $21M (exactly $20,552,061) The Astronauts
Wayfinder $24.99 25,104 60% 753k $19M (exactly $18,820,469) Airship Syndicate
Titan Quest II · EA $34.99 17,398 81% 522k $18M (exactly $18,262,681) Grimlore Games
Mistfall Hunter $24.99 16,045 53% 481k $12M (exactly $12,028,936) Bellring Games
Diablo II: Resurrected – Infernal Edition $39.99 5,855 86% 176k $7.0M (exactly $7,024,244) Blizzard Entertainment, Inc.
Farever · EA $19.99 8,968 75% 269k $5.4M (exactly $5,378,110) Shiro Games
The Slormancer $19.99 6,926 81% 208k $4.2M (exactly $4,153,522) Slormite Studios
Tower of Babel: Survivors of Chaos $12.99 6,281 68% 188k $2.4M (exactly $2,447,706) NANOO

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.