Do I ship it?

GamesAction RPGAction RPG + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Incremental Action RPG?

Action RPG + Incremental

Of 38 developers who shipped an Incremental Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 73 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×0.7 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $54k, ×36 the market median. Revenue is up 975% on the market; 73 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 975% on the market, 73 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.9k → $2.2k → $589 → $299 → $2.2k → $1.2k (still earning) → $1.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,076)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,593)
Top 5% $55k (exactly $54,675)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 111
Announced 73
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 975% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG, Incremental; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Idler, RPG, Loot
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $6.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $6.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 1,638 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $54k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 73 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Book of Demons older $24.99 8,010 91% 240k $6.0M (exactly $6,005,097) Thing Trunk
Time Warpers older $19.99 493 82% 15k $296k (exactly $295,652) Proton Studio Inc
Raid Auctus $4.99 423 56% 13k $63k (exactly $63,323) Cosmic Whale Studio
Eldara $7.50 243 83% 7.3k $55k (exactly $54,675) Eldara Games
Duncrush $3.99 321 82% 9.6k $38k (exactly $38,424) Golden Pick Games
Book of Fei $2.99 347 93% 10k $31k (exactly $31,126) TAO Studio
古代风流传 older $1.45 499 72% 15k $22k (exactly $21,706) Turtle game
SEX Tentacles [18+] older $3.99 181 57% 5.4k $22k (exactly $21,666) Romantic Room
Destroy! Mosaic! $4.99 135 77% 4.1k $20k (exactly $20,210) 悠悠幽靈工作室
Loot Dungeon $6.99 44 54% 1.3k $9.2k (exactly $9,227) Electric Kite
Mosaica: Arboreal $4.99 44 81% 1.3k $6.6k (exactly $6,587) RymPow
The Ash Remembers $11.99 18 88% 540 $6.5k (exactly $6,475) Veyr Works
BreakEven - Idle · EA $4.99 39 58% 1.2k $5.8k (exactly $5,838) NKnives
Bahast $4.99 24 62% 720 $3.6k (exactly $3,593) FC Tech Labs

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.