Do I ship it?

GamesAction RPGAction RPG + FPS

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Action RPG FPS?

Action RPG + FPS

Of 118 developers who shipped an Action RPG FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 260 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, level with the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $3.5M, ×2361 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 260 games are announced against 52 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 260 announced, ×5.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + FPS
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 118
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.3k → $1.6k → $1.2k → $2.2k → $1.6k → $1.9k → $2.1k (still earning) → $120 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + FPS: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 118
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $17,993)
Top 5% $3.5M (exactly $3,536,721)
Developers, 2 yr 118
Released games 417
Announced 260
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG, FPS; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, RPG, Adventure
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 150,947 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $3.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 82 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 260 games are announced against 52 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cyberpunk 2077 older $59.99 883,400 87% 27M $1.6B (exactly $1,589,854,980) CD PROJEKT RED
Dying Light older $24.99 373,413 95% 11M $280M (exactly $279,947,726) Techland
Fallout 4 older $19.99 290,555 81% 8.7M $174M (exactly $174,245,834) Bethesda Game Studios
Warhammer 40,000: Darktide older $39.99 108,477 72% 3.3M $130M (exactly $130,139,857) Fatshark
Borderlands 2 older $19.99 210,364 89% 6.3M $126M (exactly $126,155,291) Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (L… (Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Borderlands 4 $69.99 57,874 59% 1.7M $122M (exactly $121,518,038) Gearbox Software
Warhammer: Vermintide 2 older $29.99 91,013 84% 2.7M $82M (exactly $81,884,396) Fatshark
Fallout: New Vegas older $9.99 211,748 95% 6.4M $63M (exactly $63,460,876) Obsidian Entertainment
Far Cry® 4 older $29.99 68,485 84% 2.1M $62M (exactly $61,615,954) Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Shanghai,… (Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Shanghai, Toronto, Kiev)
Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon $44.99 33,560 87% 1.0M $45M (exactly $45,295,932) Questline
Witchfire · EA $39.99 17,131 91% 514k $21M (exactly $20,552,061) The Astronauts
SULFUR · EA $24.99 9,641 87% 289k $7.2M (exactly $7,227,858) Perfect Random
Atomfall $49.99 4,526 76% 136k $6.8M (exactly $6,787,642) Rebellion
RoboCop: Rogue City - Unfinished Business $29.99 3,931 84% 118k $3.5M (exactly $3,536,721) Teyon
Peripeteia · EA $24.99 3,120 86% 94k $2.3M (exactly $2,339,064) Ninth Exodus
System Shock 2: 25th Anniversary Remaster $29.99 1,803 87% 54k $1.6M (exactly $1,622,159) Nightdive Studios, Looking Glass Studio… (Nightdive Studios, Looking Glass Studios, Irrational Games)
Mage Arena · EA $2.99 17,800 91% 534k $1.6M (exactly $1,596,660) jrsjams
Total Chaos $24.99 1,561 86% 47k $1.2M (exactly $1,170,282) Trigger Happy Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.