Do I ship it?

Games › Action RPG › Action RPG + Fighting

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fighting Action RPG?

Action RPG + Fighting

Only 13 developers shipped a Fighting Action RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Splintered Fate, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×2.0 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $990; 1 in 20 cleared $3.7M, ×2488 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 29 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 29 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Fighting
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $26M → $3.3k → $9.2k → $2.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Fighting: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $987 (exactly $987)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,998)
Top 25% $9.2k (exactly $9,165)
Top 5% $3.7M (exactly $3,727,457)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 96
Announced 29
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Fighting
effort 7 / 10 · low · frame data, hitboxes and rollback netcode

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG, Fighting
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 4,787 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $990, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $9.1k, 1 in 20 over $3.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $990. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Street Fighter™ 6 2023 · $60M DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE 2015 · $34M DRAGON BALL Z: KAKAROT 2020 · $26M Sifu 2023 · $26M SCARLET NEXUS 2021 · $25M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Street Fighter™ 6 older $39.99 49,952 81% 1.5M $60M (exactly $59,927,414) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE older $64.98 17,554 89% 527k $34M (exactly $34,219,768) DIMPS
DRAGON BALL Z: KAKAROT older $19.99 43,951 92% 1.3M $26M (exactly $26,357,415) CyberConnect2 Co. Ltd.
Sifu older $39.99 21,620 92% 649k $26M (exactly $25,937,514) Sloclap
SCARLET NEXUS older $59.99 13,749 81% 412k $25M (exactly $24,744,075) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
DYNASTY WARRIORS 8: Xtreme Legends Complete Edition older $49.99 11,886 83% 357k $18M (exactly $17,825,434) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Kingdoms of Amalur: Re-Reckoning older $39.99 6,305 78% 189k $7.6M (exactly $7,564,108) KAIKO, Big Huge Games, 38 Studios
NARUTO SHIPPUDEN: Ultimate Ninja STORM Revolution older $29.99 7,228 84% 217k $6.5M (exactly $6,503,032) CyberConnect2 Co., Ltd.
Thymesia older $24.99 8,262 82% 248k $6.2M (exactly $6,194,021) OverBorder Studio
Fate/EXTELLA older $39.99 4,091 91% 123k $4.9M (exactly $4,907,973) Marvelous Inc.
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Splintered Fate $29.99 4,143 83% 124k $3.7M (exactly $3,727,457) Super Evil Megacorp
Scott Pilgrim EX $28.99 471 85% 14k $410k (exactly $409,629) Tribute Games Inc.
Mortal Rite · EA $14.99 53 62% 1.6k $24k (exactly $23,834) Round Toast Studios
Zombie Flick | 僵尸快打 $5.99 51 45% 1.5k $9.2k (exactly $9,165) Yiming
StellaGale: The Trials Of Faith · EA $9.99 29 96% 870 $8.7k (exactly $8,691) Extra Life Entertainment, Vifth Floor
Lone Wolf $19.99 6 100% 180 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) Play-Em
Xenrai $19.99 5 80% 150 $3.0k (exactly $2,998) Zenith Edge Studios
Nightmarena $5.99 15 93% 450 $2.7k (exactly $2,696) Colo Coko
Aurora's Awakening $15.00 3 100% 90 $1.4k (exactly $1,350) DJCat
KNOCKOFF $2.99 11 90% 330 $987 (exactly $987) PLUSHCATBOY

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.