Do I ship it?

GamesAction RPGAction RPG + Collectathon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Action RPG?

Action RPG + Collectathon

Of 60 developers who shipped a Collectathon Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 116 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.6k, ×1.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $750k, ×503 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 116 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 116 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Collectathon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 60
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.1k → $1.5k → $838 → $3.9k → $2.6k → $1.7k → $628 (still earning) → $360 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Collectathon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 60
Bottom 30% $360 (exactly $360)
Median $2.6k (exactly $2,637)
Top 25% $23k (exactly $22,789)
Top 5% $753k (exactly $753,049)
Developers, 2 yr 60
Released games 157
Announced 116
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG, Collectathon; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 7,624 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.6k, 1 in 4 over $22k, 1 in 20 over $750k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 36 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 116 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Atelier Yumia: The Alchemist of Memories & the Envisioned Land $69.99 2,534 64% 76k $5.3M (exactly $5,320,640) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
River City Girls 2 older $39.99 1,552 85% 47k $1.9M (exactly $1,861,934) WayForward
Little Noah: Scion of Paradise older $14.99 2,172 92% 65k $977k (exactly $976,748) Cygames, Inc., Grounding Inc.
Mega Man Star Force Legacy Collection $39.99 657 96% 20k $788k (exactly $788,203) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Shin chan: Shiro and the Coal Town $29.99 837 95% 25k $753k (exactly $753,049) h.a.n.d., Inc.
Metal Bringer $19.99 1,109 87% 33k $665k (exactly $665,067) ALPHAWING Inc.
The Brew Barons older $21.99 828 75% 25k $546k (exactly $546,232) Lifetap Studios
holoVillage: Our Cozy Days $24.99 518 83% 16k $388k (exactly $388,345) Roboqlo
RUBATO $19.99 441 97% 13k $264k (exactly $264,468) dconn
Sea Fantasy $14.99 585 86% 18k $263k (exactly $263,074) METASLA
9th Dawn Remake $15.99 514 86% 15k $247k (exactly $246,566) Valorware
Cultivation Magic World · EA $12.99 276 78% 8.3k $108k (exactly $107,557) DMG Studio
The Girl from Arkanya $19.99 153 92% 4.6k $92k (exactly $91,754) Arkanya Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.