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Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure Action RPG?
Action RPG + Choose Your Own Adventure
Of 88 developers who shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 243 more are announced, ×5.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $630, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210. 243 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.5 per shipper, while revenue is up 35% on the market.
| Bottom 30% | $210 (exactly $210) |
|---|---|
| Median | $629 (exactly $629) |
| Top 25% | $4.2k (exactly $4,196) |
| Top 5% | $361k (exactly $361,019) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 88 |
| Released games | 305 |
| Announced | 243 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Action RPG
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
- Choose Your Own Adventure
- effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- Action RPG, Choose Your Own Adventure; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Exploration
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Third Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 88% positive over 58,492 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 63 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 243 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Action RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + NavalFair
- + Local Co-OpFair
- + WesternFair
- + Local MultiplayerFair
- + Walking SimulatorLong shot
- + WuxiaPoor odds
- + Character Action GamePoor odds
- + MechsPoor odds
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + Dating SimPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + Bullet HeavenPoor odds
Comparable games
Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2018 · $129M 
鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal 2023 · $114M 
The Elder Scrolls® Online 2017 · $81M 
Metaphor: ReFantazio 2024 · $53M 
Gothic 1 Remake 2026 · $39M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Kingdom Come: Deliverance | older | $29.99 | 143,303 83% | 4.3M | $129M (exactly $128,929,709) | Warhorse Studios |
| | 鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal | older | $19.99 | 190,184 56% | 5.7M | $114M (exactly $114,053,345) | 鬼谷工作室 |
| | The Elder Scrolls® Online | older | $19.99 | 134,421 82% | 4.0M | $81M (exactly $80,612,274) | ZeniMax Online Studios |
| | Metaphor: ReFantazio | $69.99 | 25,224 89% | 757k | $53M (exactly $52,962,833) | ATLUS | |
| | Gothic 1 Remake | $49.99 | 26,258 88% | 788k | $39M (exactly $39,379,123) | Alkimia Interactive | |
 | Avorion | older | $24.99 | 13,001 90% | 390k | $9.7M (exactly $9,746,850) | Boxelware |
 | Hand of Fate | older | $19.99 | 8,009 89% | 240k | $4.8M (exactly $4,802,997) | Defiant Development |
 | Pixel Piracy | older | $14.99 | 5,713 65% | 171k | $2.6M (exactly $2,569,136) | Vitali Kirpu |
 | Guild Wars® Reforged | $19.99 | 3,265 87% | 98k | $2.0M (exactly $1,958,020) | ArenaNet® | |
 | Way of the Samurai 4 | older | $24.99 | 1,939 76% | 58k | $1.5M (exactly $1,453,668) | ACQUIRE Corp. |
 | Happy Island Fantasy | $14.99 | 1,186 88% | 36k | $533k (exactly $533,344) | HappyCreator | |
 | 消失的航班，还有她她她！Lost in the secret! | $19.99 | 602 89% | 18k | $361k (exactly $361,019) | Humongous Pictures | |
 | Guidus Zero | $14.99 | 609 75% | 18k | $274k (exactly $273,867) | izzle | |
 | Rise of Piracy | · EA | $15.99 | 520 77% | 16k | $249k (exactly $249,444) | IrishJohnGames |
 | ZENONIA 1 | $9.99 | 430 80% | 13k | $129k (exactly $128,871) | Com2us Holdings, CFK Co., Ltd. | |
 | Kromlech | · EA | $29.99 | 136 65% | 4.1k | $122k (exactly $122,359) | Perun Creative |
 | Afallon | · EA | $11.99 | 262 79% | 7.9k | $94k (exactly $94,241) | Stargazing interactive |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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