Do I ship it?

Games › Action RPG › Action RPG + Bullet Hell

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Bullet Hell Action RPG?

Action RPG + Bullet Hell

Of 279 developers who shipped a Bullet Hell Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 401 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×1.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $540k, ×367 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 401 games are announced against 139 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 401 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Bullet Hell
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 279
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.5k → $2.2k → $1.6k → $3.0k → $3.6k → $2.2k → $1.6k (still earning) → $3.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Bullet Hell: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 279
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,395)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $19,311)
Top 5% $550k (exactly $549,650)
Developers, 2 yr 279
Released games 654
Announced 401
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Bullet Hell
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG, Bullet Hell; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 213,962 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $540k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 156 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 401 games are announced against 139 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

DELTARUNE 2025 · $94M NieR Replicant™ ver.1.22474487139... 2021 · $39M Vampire Survivors 2022 · $38M Soulstone Survivors 2025 · $12M Hero Siege 2014 · $8.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DELTARUNE $24.99 124,894 98% 3.7M $94M (exactly $93,633,032) tobyfox
NieR Replicant™ ver.1.22474487139... older $59.99 21,493 88% 645k $39M (exactly $38,680,952) Square Enix, Toylogic Inc.
Vampire Survivors older $4.99 251,686 98% 7.6M $38M (exactly $37,677,394) poncle
Soulstone Survivors $14.99 25,749 91% 772k $12M (exactly $11,579,325) Game Smithing Limited
Hero Siege older $7.99 36,844 67% 1.1M $8.8M (exactly $8,831,507) Panic Art Studios Ltd
Azur Lane Crosswave older $39.99 6,537 68% 196k $7.8M (exactly $7,842,439) IDEA FACTORY, COMPILE HEART, FELISTELLA
Nova Drift older $17.99 12,975 95% 389k $7.0M (exactly $7,002,607) Chimeric
Yet Another Zombie Survivors $14.99 14,123 91% 424k $6.4M (exactly $6,351,113) Awesome Games Studio
Halls of Torment $6.66 30,752 95% 923k $6.1M (exactly $6,144,250) Chasing Carrots
Death Must Die · EA older $6.99 20,937 90% 628k $4.4M (exactly $4,390,489) Realm Archive
Tower of Babel: Survivors of Chaos $12.99 6,281 68% 188k $2.4M (exactly $2,447,706) NANOO
Homura Hime $24.99 2,316 90% 69k $1.7M (exactly $1,736,305) Crimson Dusk
R.I.P. - Reincarnation Insurance Program $14.99 2,727 76% 82k $1.2M (exactly $1,226,332) WarmCore Studio
Temtem: Swarm $12.99 2,487 77% 75k $969k (exactly $969,184) Crema, GGTech Studios
Wanderburg · EA $14.99 2,103 78% 63k $946k (exactly $945,719) Randwerk
Conquest Dark · EA $9.99 2,530 89% 76k $758k (exactly $758,241) Eldritch Sword Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.