Do I ship it?

Games › Action RPG › Action RPG + Base Building

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Base Building Action RPG?

Action RPG + Base Building

Of 79 developers who shipped a Base Building Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 278 more are announced, ×5.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $17k, ×11 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.9M, ×1306 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 278 games are announced against 53 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 278 announced, ×5.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Base Building
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 79
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $1.8k → $43k → $16k → $4.9k → $48k → $22k (still earning) → $13k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Base Building: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 79
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Median $17k (exactly $17,147)
Top 25% $233k (exactly $233,283)
Top 5% $2.0M (exactly $1,955,802)
Developers, 2 yr 79
Released games 221
Announced 278
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 105% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG, Base Building; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Crafting, Exploration
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 35,028 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $17k, 1 in 4 over $230k, 1 in 20 over $1.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 6 in 10 of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 278 games are announced against 53 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Enshrouded 2024 · EA · $112M Kenshi 2018 · $89M The Riftbreaker 2021 · $20M Tribes of Midgard 2021 · $10M ASKA 2024 · EA · $7.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Enshrouded · EA older $39.99 93,426 85% 2.8M $112M (exactly $112,083,172) Keen Games GmbH
Kenshi older $29.99 98,451 95% 3.0M $89M (exactly $88,576,365) Lo-Fi Games
The Riftbreaker older $29.99 22,127 90% 664k $20M (exactly $19,907,662) EXOR Studios
Tribes of Midgard older $19.99 17,465 76% 524k $10M (exactly $10,473,760) Norsfell
ASKA · EA older $24.99 10,457 79% 314k $7.8M (exactly $7,839,613) Sand Sailor Studio
VEIN · EA $19.99 11,539 87% 346k $6.9M (exactly $6,919,938) Ramjet Studios
Pax Autocratica · EA $29.99 3,202 91% 96k $2.9M (exactly $2,880,839) Multiverse
Zompiercer · EA older $19.99 4,562 88% 137k $2.7M (exactly $2,735,831) DDDimanN
Cinderia · EA $17.99 4,763 88% 143k $2.6M (exactly $2,570,591) MyACG Studio
Romestead · EA $13.99 4,660 76% 140k $2.0M (exactly $1,955,802) Beartwigs
Towers of Aghasba · EA $29.99 1,904 67% 57k $1.7M (exactly $1,713,029) Dreamlit inc.
ZeroSpace · EA $39.99 1,161 78% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,392,852) Starlance Studios, Ironward
IfSunSets · EA $19.99 2,284 74% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,369,715) POLYMORPH
Witchspire · EA $22.99 1,849 82% 55k $1.3M (exactly $1,275,255) Envar Games
JIANGHU CHRONICLES $17.99 2,046 70% 61k $1.1M (exactly $1,104,226) 一品阁
Return from Core $16.99 1,620 75% 49k $826k (exactly $825,714) 顽核社 FuncoreClub

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.