Do I ship it?

GamesAction-AdventureAction-Adventure + Visual Novel

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Visual Novel Action-Adventure?

Action-Adventure + Visual Novel

Of 146 developers who shipped a Visual Novel Action-Adventure in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 197 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.6k, ×4.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×253 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 197 games are announced against 78 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 197 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action-Adventure + Visual Novel
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 146
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.6k → $2.2k → $2.7k → $2.0k → $2.6k → $2.6k → $3.2k (still earning) → $1.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action-Adventure + Visual Novel: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 146
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $2.6k (exactly $2,637)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $27,240)
Top 5% $159k (exactly $158,744)
Developers, 2 yr 146
Released games 442
Announced 197
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action-Adventure
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Action-Adventure, Visual Novel; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, RPG
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 15,491 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $2.6k, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 8 in 10 of the 94 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 197 games are announced against 78 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action-Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair18 devs · median $6.7k · 19 announced
  3. + BikesFair11 devs · median $2.5k · 11 announced
  4. + TransportationFair21 devs · median $2.3k · 22 announced
  5. + MotorbikeFair9 devs · median $2.3k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingLong shot14 devs · median $360 · 16 announced
  7. + Time AttackLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 17 announced
  8. + Character Action GamePoor odds23 devs · median $58k · 93 announced
  9. + MMORPGPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 116 announced
  10. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds49 devs · median $25k · 133 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds81 devs · median $24k · 135 announced
  12. + Villain ProtagonistPoor odds12 devs · median $17k · 26 announced

All 242 pairs on the Action-Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ghost Trick: Phantom Detective older $29.99 6,429 97% 193k $5.8M (exactly $5,784,171) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
UNBEATABLE $27.99 6,552 92% 197k $5.5M (exactly $5,501,714) D-CELL GAMES
Threefold Recital $14.99 5,117 98% 154k $2.3M (exactly $2,301,115) Everscape Games
New Tales from the Borderlands older $39.99 1,737 29% 52k $2.1M (exactly $2,083,879) Gearbox Software
Master Detective Archives: RAIN CODE Plus older $29.99 2,142 80% 64k $1.9M (exactly $1,927,157) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Beacon Pines older $19.99 3,054 97% 92k $1.8M (exactly $1,831,484) Hiding Spot
Ys X: Nordics $59.99 890 76% 27k $1.6M (exactly $1,601,733) Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH
Wild West Legacy older $26.99 1,706 39% 51k $1.4M (exactly $1,381,348) Moon Punch Studio
We. The Revolution older $19.99 1,997 73% 60k $1.2M (exactly $1,197,601) Polyslash
SAMURAI MAIDEN older $59.99 648 60% 19k $1.2M (exactly $1,166,206) SHADE Inc.
SHUTEN ORDER $49.99 712 80% 21k $1.1M (exactly $1,067,786) Neilo Inc.
KAMITSUBAKI CITY REGENERATE $34.99 494 93% 15k $519k (exactly $518,552) KAMITSUBAKI STUDIO, orange
Ys X: Proud Nordics $69.99 168 75% 5.0k $353k (exactly $352,750) Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH
Deer & Boy $19.99 370 94% 11k $222k (exactly $221,889) Lifeline Games
Harem in Another World $14.99 431 94% 13k $194k (exactly $193,821) Jong Games
The Coma 3: Bloodlines $14.99 353 86% 11k $159k (exactly $158,744) Dvora Studio Co., Ltd.
Starlight Revolver · EA $12.99 404 54% 12k $157k (exactly $157,439) Pahdo Labs

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.