Do I ship it?

GamesAction-AdventureAction-Adventure + Time Manipulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Time Manipulation Action-Adventure?

Action-Adventure + Time Manipulation

Of 47 developers who shipped a Time Manipulation Action-Adventure in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 114 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $170k, ×286 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 114 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 114 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action-Adventure + Time Manipulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 47
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $20k → $3.7k → $4.8k → $1.7k → $987 → $18k → $536 (still earning) → $1.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action-Adventure + Time Manipulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 47
Bottom 30% $536 (exactly $536)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $15,290)
Top 5% $180k (exactly $179,910)
Developers, 2 yr 47
Released games 159
Announced 114
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action-Adventure
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Time Manipulation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Action-Adventure, Time Manipulation; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 2,909 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $900, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 9 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 114 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action-Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair18 devs · median $6.7k · 19 announced
  3. + BikesFair11 devs · median $2.5k · 11 announced
  4. + TransportationFair21 devs · median $2.3k · 22 announced
  5. + MotorbikeFair9 devs · median $2.3k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingLong shot14 devs · median $360 · 16 announced
  7. + Time AttackLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 17 announced
  8. + Character Action GamePoor odds23 devs · median $58k · 93 announced
  9. + MMORPGPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 116 announced
  10. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds49 devs · median $25k · 133 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds81 devs · median $24k · 135 announced
  12. + Villain ProtagonistPoor odds12 devs · median $17k · 26 announced

All 242 pairs on the Action-Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DEATHLOOP older $59.99 19,910 76% 597k $36M (exactly $35,832,027) Arkane Studios
Touhou Luna Nights older $17.99 13,776 97% 413k $7.4M (exactly $7,434,907) Team Ladybug, WSS playground
Prince of Persia®: The Sands of Time older $9.99 5,045 85% 151k $1.5M (exactly $1,511,986) Kudosoft
Braid, Anniversary Edition older $19.99 1,761 92% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,056,072) Thekla, Inc.
Prince of Persia: The Forgotten Sands™ older $9.99 2,882 70% 86k $864k (exactly $863,735) Ubisoft Montreal
NUTS older $24.99 884 88% 27k $663k (exactly $662,735) Joon, Pol, Muutsch, Char & Torfi
Shadwen older $16.99 1,049 77% 31k $535k (exactly $534,675) Frozenbyte
Chrono Gear: Warden of Time $17.99 950 98% 29k $513k (exactly $512,715) Team Chrono Gear, GalaxyTrail
Iron Danger older $19.99 544 73% 16k $326k (exactly $326,237) Action Squad Studios
Blades of Time older $9.99 1,039 80% 31k $311k (exactly $311,388) Gaijin Entertainment Corporation
Wanderer: The Fragments of Fate $49.99 149 62% 4.5k $223k (exactly $223,455) Mighty Eyes
Advent NEON® $19.99 300 98% 9.0k $180k (exactly $179,910) CryoGX
DragonLoop $8.99 567 91% 17k $153k (exactly $152,920) 沙因, 小阮
MotionRec $9.99 430 99% 13k $129k (exactly $128,871) HANDSUM
Retrace the Light $17.99 170 85% 5.1k $92k (exactly $91,749) Xiaming Game
UnLoop · EA $17.99 163 98% 4.9k $88k (exactly $87,971) Superposition NULL
Otherskin $29.99 63 69% 1.9k $57k (exactly $56,681) Game Atelier
Orbyss $14.99 68 95% 2.0k $31k (exactly $30,580) Misty Whale
Causal Loop $19.99 49 91% 1.5k $29k (exactly $29,385) Mirebound Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.