Do I ship it?

GamesAction-AdventureAction-Adventure + Swordplay

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Swordplay Action-Adventure?

Action-Adventure + Swordplay

Of 137 developers who shipped a Swordplay Action-Adventure in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 333 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×3.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $4.9M, ×7854 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 333 games are announced against 69 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 333 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action-Adventure + Swordplay
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 137
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.7k → $2.3k → $22k → $1.2k → $3.6k → $1.2k → $3.0k (still earning) → $7.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action-Adventure + Swordplay: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 137
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $2.3k (exactly $2,328)
Top 25% $47k (exactly $46,769)
Top 5% $4.9M (exactly $4,932,513)
Developers, 2 yr 137
Released games 412
Announced 333
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action-Adventure
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Action-Adventure, Swordplay; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, Story Rich, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 218,283 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.3k, 1 in 4 over $46k, 1 in 20 over $4.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 89 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 333 games are announced against 69 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action-Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair18 devs · median $6.7k · 19 announced
  3. + BikesFair11 devs · median $2.5k · 11 announced
  4. + TransportationFair21 devs · median $2.3k · 22 announced
  5. + MotorbikeFair9 devs · median $2.3k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingLong shot14 devs · median $360 · 16 announced
  7. + Time AttackLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 17 announced
  8. + Character Action GamePoor odds23 devs · median $58k · 93 announced
  9. + MMORPGPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 116 announced
  10. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds49 devs · median $25k · 133 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds81 devs · median $24k · 135 announced
  12. + Villain ProtagonistPoor odds12 devs · median $17k · 26 announced

All 242 pairs on the Action-Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II $59.99 144,558 93% 4.3M $260M (exactly $260,161,033) Warhorse Studios
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ older $39.99 153,782 88% 4.6M $184M (exactly $184,492,265) Respawn Entertainment
STAR WARS Jedi: Survivor™ older $69.99 79,990 71% 2.4M $168M (exactly $167,955,003) Respawn
Dragon's Dogma 2 older $39.99 76,627 62% 2.3M $92M (exactly $91,929,412) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Assassin’s Creed Shadows $69.99 34,953 75% 1.0M $73M (exactly $73,390,814) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Bucharest & Craiova, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Osaka, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Ukraine)
Ghostrunner older $29.99 46,818 91% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,122,155) One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Iro… (One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Ironworks™, All in! Games)
Sifu older $39.99 21,620 92% 649k $26M (exactly $25,937,514) Sloclap
Onimusha: Way of the Sword $69.99 11,279 89% 338k $24M (exactly $23,682,516) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
NINJA GAIDEN 4 $69.99 8,459 88% 254k $18M (exactly $17,761,362) PlatinumGames Inc. / Team NINJA / KOEI… (PlatinumGames Inc. / Team NINJA / KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.)
Hellblade II: Senua’s Saga older $49.99 9,381 86% 281k $14M (exactly $14,068,686) Ninja Theory
Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii $59.99 6,584 88% 198k $12M (exactly $11,849,225) RGG Studio
Beast of Reincarnation $59.99 4,188 56% 126k $7.5M (exactly $7,537,144) GAME FREAK inc.
NINJA GAIDEN 2 Black $49.99 3,289 78% 99k $4.9M (exactly $4,932,513) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Echoes of the End: Enhanced Edition $39.99 1,484 78% 45k $1.8M (exactly $1,780,355) Myrkur Games
Sword of the Sea $29.99 1,638 89% 49k $1.5M (exactly $1,473,709) Giant Squid
Tails of Iron 2: Whiskers of Winter $24.99 1,851 79% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,387,695) Odd Bug Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.