Do I ship it?

GamesAction-AdventureAction-Adventure + Sports

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sports Action-Adventure?

Action-Adventure + Sports

Of 118 developers who shipped a Sports Action-Adventure in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 111 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $620, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×463 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 111 games are announced against 65 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 111 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action-Adventure + Sports
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 118
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $539 → $1.0k → $1.8k → $598 → $1.0k → $861 → $600 (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action-Adventure + Sports: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 118
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $624 (exactly $624)
Top 25% $5.0k (exactly $5,034)
Top 5% $291k (exactly $290,854)
Developers, 2 yr 118
Released games 445
Announced 111
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action-Adventure
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Action-Adventure, Sports; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Simulation
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 28,961 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $620, 1 in 4 over $5.0k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 95 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 111 games are announced against 65 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action-Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair18 devs · median $6.7k · 19 announced
  3. + BikesFair11 devs · median $2.5k · 11 announced
  4. + TransportationFair21 devs · median $2.3k · 22 announced
  5. + MotorbikeFair9 devs · median $2.3k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingLong shot14 devs · median $360 · 16 announced
  7. + Time AttackLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 17 announced
  8. + Character Action GamePoor odds23 devs · median $58k · 93 announced
  9. + MMORPGPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 116 announced
  10. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds49 devs · median $25k · 133 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds81 devs · median $24k · 135 announced
  12. + Villain ProtagonistPoor odds12 devs · median $17k · 26 announced

All 242 pairs on the Action-Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cairn $29.99 18,224 94% 547k $16M (exactly $16,396,133) The Game Bakers
Sledders $29.99 4,372 95% 131k $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488) Hanki Games
Umamusume: Pretty Derby - Party Dash older $44.99 1,429 75% 43k $1.9M (exactly $1,928,721) Cygames, Inc., Arc System Works
Rollerdrome older $29.99 1,486 91% 45k $1.3M (exactly $1,336,954) Roll7
STORROR Parkour Pro · EA $24.99 1,605 71% 48k $1.2M (exactly $1,203,268) Hole in the Sleeve Game Studios
MAVRIX by Matt Jones $39.99 969 80% 29k $1.2M (exactly $1,162,509) Third Kind Games
Horse Tales: Emerald Valley Ranch older $29.99 874 62% 26k $786k (exactly $786,338) Aesir Interactive
Wheel World $19.99 735 90% 22k $441k (exactly $440,779) Messhof
Whisker Squadron: Survivor $19.99 485 77% 15k $291k (exactly $290,854) Flippfly LLC
BEYBLADE X XONE $49.99 162 79% 4.9k $243k (exactly $242,951) 株式会社グルーブボックスジャパン
Paddle Paddle Paddle $4.99 1,584 86% 48k $237k (exactly $237,125) Zoroarts
3dSen PC $14.99 524 91% 16k $236k (exactly $235,643) Geod Studio
Helskate $24.99 301 65% 9.0k $226k (exactly $225,660) Phantom Coast

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.