Do I ship it?

GamesAction-AdventureAction-Adventure + Sandbox

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sandbox Action-Adventure?

Action-Adventure + Sandbox

Of 275 developers who shipped a Sandbox Action-Adventure in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 683 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×1939 the market median. Revenue is up 65% on the market; 683 games are announced against 156 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 65% on the market, 683 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action-Adventure + Sandbox
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 275
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.3k → $6.6k → $7.2k → $1.7k → $3.1k → $1.8k → $2.2k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action-Adventure + Sandbox: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 275
Bottom 30% $478 (exactly $478)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,158)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $24,689)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,217,391)
Developers, 2 yr 275
Released games 745
Announced 683
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 65% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action-Adventure
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Action-Adventure, Sandbox; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Action, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 56,295 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $24k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 8 in 10 of the 141 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 683 games are announced against 156 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action-Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair18 devs · median $6.7k · 19 announced
  3. + BikesFair11 devs · median $2.5k · 11 announced
  4. + TransportationFair21 devs · median $2.3k · 22 announced
  5. + MotorbikeFair9 devs · median $2.3k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingLong shot14 devs · median $360 · 16 announced
  7. + Time AttackLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 17 announced
  8. + Character Action GamePoor odds23 devs · median $58k · 93 announced
  9. + MMORPGPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 116 announced
  10. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds49 devs · median $25k · 133 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds81 devs · median $24k · 135 announced
  12. + Villain ProtagonistPoor odds12 devs · median $17k · 26 announced

All 242 pairs on the Action-Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sons Of The Forest older $29.99 284,572 88% 8.5M $256M (exactly $256,029,428) Endnight Games Ltd
V Rising older $34.99 110,505 89% 3.3M $116M (exactly $115,997,098) Stunlock Studios
鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal older $19.99 190,184 56% 5.7M $114M (exactly $114,053,345) 鬼谷工作室
Green Hell older $24.99 79,392 84% 2.4M $60M (exactly $59,520,182) Creepy Jar
Noita older $19.99 81,149 95% 2.4M $49M (exactly $48,665,055) Nolla Games
Assassin's Creed 2 older $19.99 57,661 89% 1.7M $35M (exactly $34,579,302) Ubisoft Montreal
Batman: Arkham City - Game of the Year Edition older $19.99 55,935 95% 1.7M $34M (exactly $33,544,219) Rocksteady Studios
Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas – The Definitive Edition older $59.99 15,628 80% 469k $28M (exactly $28,125,712) Rockstar Games
Batman™: Arkham Origins older $19.99 45,536 90% 1.4M $27M (exactly $27,307,939) WB Games Montreal, Splash Damage
Trailmakers older $24.99 33,465 92% 1.0M $25M (exactly $25,088,710) Flashbulb
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
Farever · EA $19.99 8,968 75% 269k $5.4M (exactly $5,378,110) Shiro Games
Dead Rising Deluxe Remaster $49.99 2,971 80% 89k $4.5M (exactly $4,455,609) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Longvinter $19.99 6,951 68% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,168,515) Uuvana Studios
Sledders $29.99 4,372 95% 131k $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488) Hanki Games
Project Silverfish · EA $29.99 3,138 93% 94k $2.8M (exactly $2,823,259) Siris Pendrake
Cubic Odyssey $24.99 2,406 74% 72k $1.8M (exactly $1,803,778) Atypical Games
Oddsparks: An Automation Adventure $29.99 1,867 82% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,679,740) Massive Miniteam
Eden Crafters $19.99 2,507 85% 75k $1.5M (exactly $1,503,448) Osaris Games
Lucid Blocks $9.99 4,670 93% 140k $1.4M (exactly $1,399,599) Lucy B. Locks

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.