Do I ship it?

Games › Action-Adventure › Action-Adventure + Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelike Action-Adventure?

Action-Adventure + Roguelike

Of 362 developers who shipped a Roguelike Action-Adventure in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 590 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $560k, ×905 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 590 games are announced against 205 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 590 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action-Adventure + Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 362
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $807 → $2.0k → $1.2k → $1.5k → $2.4k → $1.1k → $629 (still earning) → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action-Adventure + Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 362
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,079)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $19,095)
Top 5% $568k (exactly $568,273)
Developers, 2 yr 362
Released games 890
Announced 590
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action-Adventure
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Action-Adventure, Roguelike; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 51,239 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $560k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 7 in 10 of the 182 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 590 games are announced against 205 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action-Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair18 devs · median $6.7k · 19 announced
  3. + BikesFair11 devs · median $2.5k · 11 announced
  4. + TransportationFair21 devs · median $2.3k · 22 announced
  5. + MotorbikeFair9 devs · median $2.3k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingLong shot14 devs · median $360 · 16 announced
  7. + Time AttackLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 17 announced
  8. + Character Action GamePoor odds23 devs · median $58k · 93 announced
  9. + MMORPGPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 116 announced
  10. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds49 devs · median $25k · 133 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds81 devs · median $24k · 135 announced
  12. + Villain ProtagonistPoor odds12 devs · median $17k · 26 announced

All 242 pairs on the Action-Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Noita 2020 · $49M Skul: The Hero Slayer 2021 · $30M Sifu 2023 · $26M 暖雪 Warm Snow 2022 · $19M Neon Abyss 2020 · $19M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Noita older $19.99 81,149 95% 2.4M $49M (exactly $48,665,055) Nolla Games
Skul: The Hero Slayer older $19.99 50,801 93% 1.5M $30M (exactly $30,465,360) SOUTHPAW GAMES
Sifu older $39.99 21,620 92% 649k $26M (exactly $25,937,514) Sloclap
暖雪 Warm Snow older $17.99 35,270 92% 1.1M $19M (exactly $19,035,219) BadMudStudio
Neon Abyss older $31.49 19,709 86% 591k $19M (exactly $18,619,092) Veewo Games
Children of Morta older $21.99 18,213 88% 546k $12M (exactly $12,015,116) Dead Mage
SULFUR · EA $24.99 9,641 87% 289k $7.2M (exactly $7,227,858) Perfect Random
Book of Demons older $24.99 8,010 91% 240k $6.0M (exactly $6,005,097) Thing Trunk
Lost Castle 2 $17.99 10,851 78% 326k $5.9M (exactly $5,856,285) Hunter Studio
Realm of Ink $24.99 5,007 90% 150k $3.8M (exactly $3,753,748) Leap Studio
Moonlighter 2: The Endless Vault $29.99 3,146 80% 94k $2.8M (exactly $2,830,456) Digital Sun
Cinderia · EA $17.99 4,763 88% 143k $2.6M (exactly $2,570,591) MyACG Studio
The Rogue Prince of Persia $29.99 2,393 89% 72k $2.2M (exactly $2,152,982) Evil Empire
VOIN · EA $19.99 3,319 94% 100k $2.0M (exactly $1,990,404) Nikita Sozidar
KLETKA $9.99 6,374 90% 191k $1.9M (exactly $1,910,288) Callback, ln404
Pass the Fear $18.99 2,985 79% 90k $1.7M (exactly $1,700,554) PlayMud Studio
Crimson Moon $19.99 2,760 59% 83k $1.7M (exactly $1,655,172) ProbablyMonsters

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.