Do I ship it?

GamesAction-AdventureAction-Adventure + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Action-Adventure?

Action-Adventure + Perma Death

Of 135 developers who shipped a Perma Death Action-Adventure in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 230 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $240k, ×393 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 230 games are announced against 73 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 230 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action-Adventure + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 135
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $807 → $719 → $5.3k → $1.5k → $838 → $718 → $359 (still earning) → $480 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action-Adventure + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 135
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $718 (exactly $718)
Top 25% $4.8k (exactly $4,795)
Top 5% $247k (exactly $246,566)
Developers, 2 yr 135
Released games 353
Announced 230
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action-Adventure
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Action-Adventure, Perma Death; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action Roguelike
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 22,064 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $720, 1 in 4 over $4.7k, 1 in 20 over $240k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 70 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 230 games are announced against 73 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action-Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair18 devs · median $6.7k · 19 announced
  3. + BikesFair11 devs · median $2.5k · 11 announced
  4. + TransportationFair21 devs · median $2.3k · 22 announced
  5. + MotorbikeFair9 devs · median $2.3k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingLong shot14 devs · median $360 · 16 announced
  7. + Time AttackLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 17 announced
  8. + Character Action GamePoor odds23 devs · median $58k · 93 announced
  9. + MMORPGPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 116 announced
  10. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds49 devs · median $25k · 133 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds81 devs · median $24k · 135 announced
  12. + Villain ProtagonistPoor odds12 devs · median $17k · 26 announced

All 242 pairs on the Action-Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Lethal Company · EA older $9.99 411,550 97% 12M $123M (exactly $123,341,535) Zeekerss
Noita older $19.99 81,149 95% 2.4M $49M (exactly $48,665,055) Nolla Games
Nuclear Nightmare · EA $6.99 15,403 81% 462k $3.2M (exactly $3,230,009) BG Productions
Crown Trick older $19.99 4,509 85% 135k $2.7M (exactly $2,704,047) NEXT Studios
Phantom Abyss older $19.99 1,962 81% 59k $1.2M (exactly $1,176,611) Team WIBY
Bootstrap Island $24.99 1,362 81% 41k $1.0M (exactly $1,021,091) Maru VR
BELOW older $24.99 1,304 70% 39k $978k (exactly $977,609) Capybara Games
Tempest: Pirate Action RPG older $14.99 1,778 69% 53k $800k (exactly $799,567) HeroCraft
Spirit Realm · EA older $18.18 1,379 76% 41k $752k (exactly $752,107) 深圳市灵境互娱科技有限公司
LET IT DIE: INFERNO $24.99 774 52% 23k $580k (exactly $580,268) SUPERTRICK GAMES, Inc.
Paranoia Place: Escape Together $7.99 1,555 87% 47k $373k (exactly $372,734) Bloody Pixel Games
Netherworld Covenant $19.99 597 78% 18k $358k (exactly $358,021) MadGoat Game Studio
PEPPERED: an existential platformer $14.99 603 96% 18k $271k (exactly $271,169) Mostly Games
9th Dawn Remake $15.99 514 86% 15k $247k (exactly $246,566) Valorware
UNDERWARD $9.99 593 73% 18k $178k (exactly $177,722) INTENSE
Starlight Revolver · EA $12.99 404 54% 12k $157k (exactly $157,439) Pahdo Labs
Bendy: Lone Wolf $19.99 259 77% 7.8k $155k (exactly $155,322) Joey Drew Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.