Do I ship it?

GamesAction-AdventureAction-Adventure + Outbreak Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Outbreak Sim Action-Adventure?

Action-Adventure + Outbreak Sim

Of 26 developers who shipped an Outbreak Sim Action-Adventure in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 41 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $420, ×0.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90. 41 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper, while revenue is up 155% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 155% on the market, 41 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action-Adventure + Outbreak Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $479 → $2.7k → $6.5k → $298 → $629 → $839 (still earning) → $76 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action-Adventure + Outbreak Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $420 (exactly $420)
Top 25% $1.6k (exactly $1,559)
Top 5% $98k (exactly $97,585)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 72
Announced 41
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 155% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action-Adventure
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Outbreak Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Action-Adventure, Outbreak Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Base Building
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 71% positive over 2,518 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $420, 1 in 4 over $1.5k, 1 in 20 over $97k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 41 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action-Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair18 devs · median $6.7k · 19 announced
  3. + BikesFair11 devs · median $2.5k · 11 announced
  4. + TransportationFair21 devs · median $2.3k · 22 announced
  5. + MotorbikeFair9 devs · median $2.3k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingLong shot14 devs · median $360 · 16 announced
  7. + Time AttackLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 17 announced
  8. + Character Action GamePoor odds23 devs · median $58k · 93 announced
  9. + MMORPGPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 116 announced
  10. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds49 devs · median $25k · 133 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds81 devs · median $24k · 135 announced
  12. + Villain ProtagonistPoor odds12 devs · median $17k · 26 announced

All 242 pairs on the Action-Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dread Dawn $19.99 2,113 71% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,267,166) Kioop
Stubbs the Zombie in Rebel Without a Pulse older $19.99 1,781 89% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,068,066) Aspyr
Broken Lines older $24.99 604 76% 18k $453k (exactly $452,819) BirdIsland/PortaPlay
EVOTINCTION older $29.99 173 86% 5.2k $156k (exactly $155,648) Spikewave Games
Infinite Lives $14.99 217 76% 6.5k $98k (exactly $97,585) MDickie
Undead Inc. older $19.99 158 27% 4.7k $95k (exactly $94,753) Rightsized Games
Baby Blues Nightmares - Toddler Horror Game older $12.99 93 91% 2.8k $36k (exactly $36,242) Steelkrill Studio
The Backrooms Project · EA older $9.99 106 63% 3.2k $32k (exactly $31,768) 3AM Studios
Outbreak older $9.99 103 66% 3.1k $31k (exactly $30,869) Dead Drop Studios LLC
Zombie Party 丧尸派对 older $5.99 140 77% 4.2k $25k (exactly $25,158) Joychasing Games
Embers of the Night $8.99 91 73% 2.7k $25k (exactly $24,543) 巨浪游戏
Wild Alone $10.99 38 47% 1.1k $13k (exactly $12,529) Wild Alone 21
Backrooms: Partygoers $11.99 11 90% 330 $4.0k (exactly $3,957) Mascot Bro Studio
Zombies Attack $4.99 26 100% 780 $3.9k (exactly $3,892) Liao Kai, LKK GAME
Evil World HOPSCA $12.99 4 0% 120 $1.6k (exactly $1,559) XU RENYU
The Long Winter: I Am Not an Animal $7.99 6 33% 180 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) Playnova
The spring $3.99 8 75% 240 $958 (exactly $958) Akaji Games
Wendigo Land : Survive The Legend · EA $6.99 4 75% 120 $839 (exactly $839) Apinat Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.