Do I ship it?

GamesAction-AdventureAction-Adventure + Naval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Naval Action-Adventure?

Action-Adventure + Naval

Of 32 developers who shipped a Naval Action-Adventure in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 68 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.6k, ×10 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $11M, ×18868 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 68 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 68 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action-Adventure + Naval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $26k → $1.6k → $2.7k → $6.6k → $17k → $69k → $4.9k (still earning) → $20k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action-Adventure + Naval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $6.6k (exactly $6,593)
Top 25% $119k (exactly $118,770)
Top 5% $12M (exactly $11,849,225)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 86
Announced 68
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action-Adventure
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Naval
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Action-Adventure; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Action, Open World
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 40,602 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $6.6k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $11M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 6 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 68 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action-Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair18 devs · median $6.7k · 19 announced
  3. + BikesFair11 devs · median $2.5k · 11 announced
  4. + TransportationFair21 devs · median $2.3k · 22 announced
  5. + MotorbikeFair9 devs · median $2.3k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingLong shot14 devs · median $360 · 16 announced
  7. + Time AttackLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 17 announced
  8. + Character Action GamePoor odds23 devs · median $58k · 93 announced
  9. + MMORPGPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 116 announced
  10. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds49 devs · median $25k · 133 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds81 devs · median $24k · 135 announced
  12. + Villain ProtagonistPoor odds12 devs · median $17k · 26 announced

All 242 pairs on the Action-Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Assassin's Creed Valhalla older $59.99 41,083 70% 1.2M $74M (exactly $73,937,075) Ubisoft Montreal
Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced $59.99 26,652 81% 800k $48M (exactly $47,965,604) Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, U… (Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft India, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Romania)
Assassin’s Creed® Rogue older $19.99 21,310 86% 639k $13M (exactly $12,779,607) Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Kiev
Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii $59.99 6,584 88% 198k $12M (exactly $11,849,225) RGG Studio
Age of Water $29.99 2,883 72% 86k $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835) Three Whales Studio
SteamWorld Heist II older $29.99 2,201 93% 66k $2.0M (exactly $1,980,240) Thunderful Development
Salt 2: Shores of Gold $19.99 2,182 85% 65k $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545) Lavaboots Studios
Tempest: Pirate Action RPG older $14.99 1,778 69% 53k $800k (exactly $799,567) HeroCraft
Corsairs Legacy - Pirate Action RPG & Sea Battles · EA older $19.99 1,094 74% 33k $656k (exactly $656,072) Mauris, Tech-5 UG
IronWolf VR older $19.99 1,087 94% 33k $652k (exactly $651,874) Ionized Studios
Darkwater $9.99 989 77% 30k $296k (exactly $296,403) Targon Studios
Windward Horizon $19.99 401 79% 12k $240k (exactly $240,480) Tasharen Entertainment Inc.
Captain Bones : A Pirate's Journey $14.99 348 79% 10k $156k (exactly $156,496) World of Poly
SeaCret 1 · EA $39.99 99 61% 3.0k $119k (exactly $118,770) Dalas
Decline's Drops $14.99 170 96% 5.1k $76k (exactly $76,449) Le Moulin aux Bulles
Water You Doing? $7.99 294 59% 8.8k $70k (exactly $70,472) DiSolve Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.