Do I ship it?

GamesAction-AdventureAction-Adventure + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian Action-Adventure?

Action-Adventure + Lovecraftian

Of 82 developers who shipped a Lovecraftian Action-Adventure in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 194 more are announced, ×5.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.6k, ×7.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $560k, ×894 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 194 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 194 announced, ×5.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action-Adventure + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 82
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $76k → $6.6k → $3.1k → $5.1k → $6.0k → $4.5k → $3.6k (still earning) → $3.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action-Adventure + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 82
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Median $4.6k (exactly $4,585)
Top 25% $53k (exactly $52,536)
Top 5% $561k (exactly $561,319)
Developers, 2 yr 82
Released games 209
Announced 194
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action-Adventure
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Action-Adventure; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 14,859 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $4.6k, 1 in 4 over $52k, 1 in 20 over $560k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 8 in 10 of the 48 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 194 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action-Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair18 devs · median $6.7k · 19 announced
  3. + BikesFair11 devs · median $2.5k · 11 announced
  4. + TransportationFair21 devs · median $2.3k · 22 announced
  5. + MotorbikeFair9 devs · median $2.3k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingLong shot14 devs · median $360 · 16 announced
  7. + Time AttackLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 17 announced
  8. + Character Action GamePoor odds23 devs · median $58k · 93 announced
  9. + MMORPGPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 116 announced
  10. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds49 devs · median $25k · 133 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds81 devs · median $24k · 135 announced
  12. + Villain ProtagonistPoor odds12 devs · median $17k · 26 announced

All 242 pairs on the Action-Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SIGNALIS older $19.99 30,601 96% 918k $18M (exactly $18,351,420) rose-engine
Amnesia: Rebirth older $29.99 7,894 77% 237k $7.1M (exactly $7,102,232) Frictional Games
The Sinking City Remastered older $39.99 5,361 75% 161k $6.4M (exactly $6,431,592) Frogwares
Hell is Us $49.99 4,279 83% 128k $6.4M (exactly $6,417,216) Rogue Factor
Labyrinthine older $9.99 13,779 84% 413k $4.1M (exactly $4,129,566) Valko Game Studios
Sherlock Holmes The Awakened older $39.99 2,612 81% 78k $3.1M (exactly $3,133,616) Frogwares
Vertigo 2 older $29.99 2,579 95% 77k $2.3M (exactly $2,320,326) Zach Tsiakalis-Brown
The Sinking City 2 $49.99 1,410 83% 42k $2.1M (exactly $2,114,577) Frogwares
SONG OF HORROR COMPLETE EDITION older $29.99 1,932 80% 58k $1.7M (exactly $1,738,220) Protocol Games
Lucid Blocks $9.99 4,670 93% 140k $1.4M (exactly $1,399,599) Lucy B. Locks
DIVE or DIE - Children of Rain $17.99 1,255 91% 38k $677k (exactly $677,323) Drop Rate Studio
Voidwrought $19.99 936 77% 28k $561k (exactly $561,319) Powersnake
Stygian: Outer Gods · EA $24.99 516 80% 15k $387k (exactly $386,845) Misterial Games
Endoparasitic 2 $11.99 630 86% 19k $227k (exactly $226,611) Miziziziz
Junji Ito Maniac: An Infinite Gaol $11.99 629 78% 19k $226k (exactly $226,251) SOFTSTAR ENTERTAINMENT
The Occultist $29.99 244 74% 7.3k $220k (exactly $219,527) DALOAR
RailGods of Hysterra · EA $19.99 290 51% 8.7k $174k (exactly $173,913) Troglobytes Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.