Do I ship it?

GamesAction-AdventureAction-Adventure + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Action-Adventure?

Action-Adventure + Historical

Of 126 developers who shipped a Historical Action-Adventure in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 288 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $17M, ×27730 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 288 games are announced against 69 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 288 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action-Adventure + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 126
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $2.4k → $3.0k → $3.0k → $33k → $537 → $599 (still earning) → $9.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action-Adventure + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 126
Bottom 30% $418 (exactly $418)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,915)
Top 25% $43k (exactly $42,857)
Top 5% $17M (exactly $17,414,516)
Developers, 2 yr 126
Released games 437
Announced 288
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action-Adventure
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Action-Adventure; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 275,384 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $42k, 1 in 20 over $17M.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 7 in 10 of the 73 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 288 games are announced against 69 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action-Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair18 devs · median $6.7k · 19 announced
  3. + BikesFair11 devs · median $2.5k · 11 announced
  4. + TransportationFair21 devs · median $2.3k · 22 announced
  5. + MotorbikeFair9 devs · median $2.3k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingLong shot14 devs · median $360 · 16 announced
  7. + Time AttackLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 17 announced
  8. + Character Action GamePoor odds23 devs · median $58k · 93 announced
  9. + MMORPGPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 116 announced
  10. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds49 devs · median $25k · 133 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds81 devs · median $24k · 135 announced
  12. + Villain ProtagonistPoor odds12 devs · median $17k · 26 announced

All 242 pairs on the Action-Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey older $59.99 172,149 89% 5.2M $310M (exactly $309,816,555) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai)
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II $59.99 144,558 93% 4.3M $260M (exactly $260,161,033) Warhorse Studios
Assassin's Creed® Origins older $59.99 119,764 85% 3.6M $216M (exactly $215,539,271) Ubisoft Montreal
Ghost of Tsushima DIRECTOR'S CUT older $59.99 64,591 93% 1.9M $116M (exactly $116,244,423) Sucker Punch Productions, Nixxes Softwa… (Sucker Punch Productions, Nixxes Software)
Assassin's Creed Valhalla older $59.99 41,083 70% 1.2M $74M (exactly $73,937,075) Ubisoft Montreal
Assassin’s Creed Shadows $69.99 34,953 75% 1.0M $73M (exactly $73,390,814) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Bucharest & Craiova, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Osaka, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Ukraine)
Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced $59.99 26,652 81% 800k $48M (exactly $47,965,604) Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, U… (Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft India, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Romania)
Assassin's Creed 2 older $19.99 57,661 89% 1.7M $35M (exactly $34,579,302) Ubisoft Montreal
The Blood of Dawnwalker $69.99 15,789 86% 474k $33M (exactly $33,152,163) Rebel Wolves
Mafia: The Old Country $49.99 20,909 71% 627k $31M (exactly $31,357,227) Hangar 13
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle $69.99 13,058 89% 392k $27M (exactly $27,417,883) MachineGames
Assassin's Creed Mirage $49.99 11,612 76% 348k $17M (exactly $17,414,516) Ubisoft Bordeaux
Resonance: A Plague Tale Legacy $49.99 3,558 92% 107k $5.3M (exactly $5,335,933) Asobo Studio
Eriksholm: The Stolen Dream $39.99 2,451 95% 74k $2.9M (exactly $2,940,465) River End Games
Commandos: Origins $49.99 1,844 79% 55k $2.8M (exactly $2,765,447) Claymore Game Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.