Do I ship it?

GamesAction-AdventureAction-Adventure + Collectathon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Action-Adventure?

Action-Adventure + Collectathon

Of 258 developers who shipped a Collectathon Action-Adventure in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 433 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $240k, ×393 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 433 games are announced against 136 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 433 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action-Adventure + Collectathon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 258
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $1.8k → $1.3k → $1.0k → $2.0k → $1.3k → $479 (still earning) → $270 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action-Adventure + Collectathon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 258
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $6.2k (exactly $6,203)
Top 5% $247k (exactly $246,566)
Developers, 2 yr 258
Released games 763
Announced 433
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action-Adventure
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Action-Adventure, Collectathon; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Adventure, Action
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Cute, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 8,513 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $720, 1 in 4 over $6.2k, 1 in 20 over $240k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 156 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 433 games are announced against 136 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action-Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair18 devs · median $6.7k · 19 announced
  3. + BikesFair11 devs · median $2.5k · 11 announced
  4. + TransportationFair21 devs · median $2.3k · 22 announced
  5. + MotorbikeFair9 devs · median $2.3k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingLong shot14 devs · median $360 · 16 announced
  7. + Time AttackLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 17 announced
  8. + Character Action GamePoor odds23 devs · median $58k · 93 announced
  9. + MMORPGPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 116 announced
  10. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds49 devs · median $25k · 133 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds81 devs · median $24k · 135 announced
  12. + Villain ProtagonistPoor odds12 devs · median $17k · 26 announced

All 242 pairs on the Action-Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SpongeBob SquarePants: Battle for Bikini Bottom - Rehydrated older $29.99 14,439 94% 433k $13M (exactly $12,990,768) Purple Lamp
Supraland older $19.99 12,376 95% 371k $7.4M (exactly $7,421,887) Supra Games
LEGO® DC Super-Villains older $39.99 5,798 91% 174k $7.0M (exactly $6,955,861) TT Games, Feral Interactive (Mac)
Pumpkin Jack older $29.99 7,416 91% 222k $6.7M (exactly $6,672,175) Evil Raptor
Crash Bandicoot™ 4: It’s About Time older $39.99 3,985 86% 120k $4.8M (exactly $4,780,804) Toys for Bob, Beenox, Activision Shangh… (Toys for Bob, Beenox, Activision Shanghai, Hardsuit Labs, Iron Galaxy Studios)
SpongeBob SquarePants: The Cosmic Shake older $39.99 3,129 92% 94k $3.8M (exactly $3,753,861) Purple Lamp
Psychonauts older $9.99 12,343 95% 370k $3.7M (exactly $3,699,197) Double Fine Productions
Alba: A Wildlife Adventure older $16.99 6,799 97% 204k $3.5M (exactly $3,465,450) ustwo games
Lil Gator Game older $19.99 4,511 98% 135k $2.7M (exactly $2,705,247) MegaWobble
Supraland Six Inches Under older $19.99 3,975 96% 119k $2.4M (exactly $2,383,808) Supra Games
SpongeBob SquarePants: Titans of the Tide $39.99 1,151 93% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,380,855) Purple Lamp
Supraworld · EA $29.99 1,471 91% 44k $1.3M (exactly $1,323,459) Supra Games
Duskfade $29.99 793 91% 24k $713k (exactly $713,462) Weird Beluga
Bubsy 4D $19.99 777 92% 23k $466k (exactly $465,967) Fabraz
BLACKWOOD $24.99 565 46% 17k $424k (exactly $423,580) AttritoM7 Productions
Succubus Successor: Delilah's Juicy Journey $14.99 883 90% 26k $397k (exactly $397,085) Ramen Cat Studio, 樹画祭
Isopod: A Webbed Spin-off $19.99 511 88% 15k $306k (exactly $306,447) Sbug Games
Paranormal Cleanup $9.99 961 88% 29k $288k (exactly $288,012) Manic Mice
Windswept $19.99 470 92% 14k $282k (exactly $281,859) WeatherFell
Secret Agent Wizard Boy and the International Crime Syndicate · EA $9.99 931 96% 28k $279k (exactly $279,021) John Szymanski, Evan Szymanski

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.