Do I ship it?

GamesAction-AdventureAction-Adventure + Choose Your Own Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure Action-Adventure?

Action-Adventure + Choose Your Own Adventure

Of 249 developers who shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure Action-Adventure in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 533 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $890, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×185 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 533 games are announced against 138 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 533 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action-Adventure + Choose Your Own Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 249
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $987 → $2.3k → $2.0k → $1.9k → $1.2k → $599 → $1.2k (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action-Adventure + Choose Your Own Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 249
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $891 (exactly $891)
Top 25% $5.7k (exactly $5,662)
Top 5% $116k (exactly $116,204)
Developers, 2 yr 249
Released games 784
Announced 533
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action-Adventure
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Action-Adventure, Choose Your Own Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 124,625 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $890, 1 in 4 over $5.6k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 162 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 533 games are announced against 138 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action-Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair18 devs · median $6.7k · 19 announced
  3. + BikesFair11 devs · median $2.5k · 11 announced
  4. + TransportationFair21 devs · median $2.3k · 22 announced
  5. + MotorbikeFair9 devs · median $2.3k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingLong shot14 devs · median $360 · 16 announced
  7. + Time AttackLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 17 announced
  8. + Character Action GamePoor odds23 devs · median $58k · 93 announced
  9. + MMORPGPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 116 announced
  10. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds49 devs · median $25k · 133 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds81 devs · median $24k · 135 announced
  12. + Villain ProtagonistPoor odds12 devs · median $17k · 26 announced

All 242 pairs on the Action-Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey older $59.99 172,149 89% 5.2M $310M (exactly $309,816,555) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai)
Crimson Desert Enhanced $69.99 115,056 83% 3.5M $242M (exactly $241,583,083) Pearl Abyss
鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal older $19.99 190,184 56% 5.7M $114M (exactly $114,053,345) 鬼谷工作室
Watch Dogs®: Legion older $59.99 11,891 56% 357k $21M (exactly $21,400,233) Ubisoft Toronto
As Dusk Falls older $29.99 3,707 90% 111k $3.3M (exactly $3,335,188) INTERIOR/NIGHT
Caravan SandWitch older $24.99 2,797 88% 84k $2.1M (exactly $2,096,911) Studio Plane Toast
New Tales from the Borderlands older $39.99 1,737 29% 52k $2.1M (exactly $2,083,879) Gearbox Software
Directive 8020 $49.99 1,337 63% 40k $2.0M (exactly $2,005,099) Supermassive Games
Guild Wars® Reforged $19.99 3,265 87% 98k $2.0M (exactly $1,958,020) ArenaNet®
The Expanse: A Telltale Series older $24.99 2,372 76% 71k $1.8M (exactly $1,778,288) Deck Nine
Disney Epic Mickey: Rebrushed $39.99 1,275 93% 38k $1.5M (exactly $1,529,618) Purple Lamp
Blades of Fire $39.99 523 74% 16k $627k (exactly $627,443) MercurySteam
Happy Island Fantasy $14.99 1,186 88% 36k $533k (exactly $533,344) HappyCreator
KAMITSUBAKI CITY REGENERATE $34.99 494 93% 15k $519k (exactly $518,552) KAMITSUBAKI STUDIO, orange
Guidus Zero $14.99 609 75% 18k $274k (exactly $273,867) izzle
The Caribou Trail $12.99 636 90% 19k $248k (exactly $247,849) Unreliable Narrators, Manavoid Entertai… (Unreliable Narrators, Manavoid Entertainment)
Reach $29.99 244 66% 7.3k $220k (exactly $219,527) nDreams Elevation

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.