Do I ship it?

GamesAction-AdventureAction-Adventure + Asynchronous Multiplayer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Asynchronous Multiplayer Action-Adventure?

Action-Adventure + Asynchronous Multiplayer

Only 13 developers shipped an Asynchronous Multiplayer Action-Adventure in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, DEATH STRANDING 2: ON THE BEACH, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300, ×0.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 23 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper, while revenue is down 100% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 23 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action-Adventure + Asynchronous Multiplayer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Action-Adventure + Asynchronous Multiplayer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $16,553)
Top 5% $32M (exactly $32,406,770)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 26
Announced 23
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action-Adventure
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Asynchronous Multiplayer
effort 5 / 10 · low · a backend with accounts and persistent turns

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Action-Adventure, Asynchronous Multiplayer; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Exploration
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $69.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $69.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 9 games average 92% positive over 18,514 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $300, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $32M.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 4 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 23 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action-Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair18 devs · median $6.7k · 19 announced
  3. + BikesFair11 devs · median $2.5k · 11 announced
  4. + TransportationFair21 devs · median $2.3k · 22 announced
  5. + MotorbikeFair9 devs · median $2.3k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingLong shot14 devs · median $360 · 16 announced
  7. + Time AttackLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 17 announced
  8. + Character Action GamePoor odds23 devs · median $58k · 93 announced
  9. + MMORPGPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 116 announced
  10. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds49 devs · median $25k · 133 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds81 devs · median $24k · 135 announced
  12. + Villain ProtagonistPoor odds12 devs · median $17k · 26 announced

All 242 pairs on the Action-Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DEATH STRANDING 2: ON THE BEACH $69.99 15,434 94% 463k $32M (exactly $32,406,770) KOJIMA PRODUCTIONS, Nixxes Software
Dwarven Realms $9.99 2,850 81% 86k $854k (exactly $854,145) Crater Studios
Hoofobia $6.99 178 68% 5.3k $37k (exactly $37,327) Deathyell Games
Sailist · EA older $11.99 49 75% 1.5k $18k (exactly $17,625) KOY
Codename: Terranova $23.99 23 69% 690 $17k (exactly $16,553) ACGames
FPV Worldwide older $16.99 21 33% 630 $11k (exactly $10,704) Robin Cretinon
Lost Marbles · EA older $9.99 18 100% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) Cabbeast Games
SCP: Keter · EA older $5.99 30 16% 900 $5.4k (exactly $5,391) DRAUGR
Imposters $7.99 17 47% 510 $4.1k (exactly $4,075) Deathyell Games
Shadows Are Alive · EA $6.99 6 66% 180 $1.3k (exactly $1,258) Futura Games
Casa De Diamantes $8.99 3 100% 90 $809 (exactly $809) SoulPixel Studio
Alpha Genesis · EA $4.99 2 50% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Estro.Games
Slide Faster $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Puzzle Drop Studio
The Illuminati Simulator $7.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Ricardo Alonso Pina

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.