Do I ship it?

GamesAction-AdventureAction-Adventure + Assassins

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Assassin Action-Adventure?

Action-Adventure + Assassins

Of 44 developers who shipped an Assassin Action-Adventure in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 101 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, level with the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $17M, ×11625 the market median. Revenue is up 475% on the market; 101 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 475% on the market, 101 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action-Adventure + Assassins
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 44
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $1.0k → $4.8k → $359 → $1.6k → $1.9k → $719 (still earning) → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action-Adventure + Assassins: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 44
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $17,538)
Top 5% $17M (exactly $17,414,516)
Developers, 2 yr 44
Released games 164
Announced 101
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 475% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action-Adventure
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Assassins
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action-Adventure; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, Adventure
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 74,713 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $17M.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 101 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action-Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair18 devs · median $6.7k · 19 announced
  3. + BikesFair11 devs · median $2.5k · 11 announced
  4. + TransportationFair21 devs · median $2.3k · 22 announced
  5. + MotorbikeFair9 devs · median $2.3k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingLong shot14 devs · median $360 · 16 announced
  7. + Time AttackLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 17 announced
  8. + Character Action GamePoor odds23 devs · median $58k · 93 announced
  9. + MMORPGPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 116 announced
  10. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds49 devs · median $25k · 133 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds81 devs · median $24k · 135 announced
  12. + Villain ProtagonistPoor odds12 devs · median $17k · 26 announced

All 242 pairs on the Action-Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey older $59.99 172,149 89% 5.2M $310M (exactly $309,816,555) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai)
Assassin's Creed® Origins older $59.99 119,764 85% 3.6M $216M (exactly $215,539,271) Ubisoft Montreal
Assassin's Creed Valhalla older $59.99 41,083 70% 1.2M $74M (exactly $73,937,075) Ubisoft Montreal
Assassin’s Creed Shadows $69.99 34,953 75% 1.0M $73M (exactly $73,390,814) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Bucharest & Craiova, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Osaka, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Ukraine)
Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced $59.99 26,652 81% 800k $48M (exactly $47,965,604) Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, U… (Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft India, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Romania)
DEATHLOOP older $59.99 19,910 76% 597k $36M (exactly $35,832,027) Arkane Studios
Assassin's Creed 2 older $19.99 57,661 89% 1.7M $35M (exactly $34,579,302) Ubisoft Montreal
Assassin's Creed® III Remastered older $39.99 14,646 63% 439k $18M (exactly $17,570,806) Ubisoft Entertainment
Assassin's Creed Mirage $49.99 11,612 76% 348k $17M (exactly $17,414,516) Ubisoft Bordeaux
Assassin’s Creed® Brotherhood older $19.99 24,958 88% 749k $15M (exactly $14,967,313) Ubisoft Montreal
BLACKWOOD $24.99 565 46% 17k $424k (exactly $423,580) AttritoM7 Productions
Thief VR: Legacy of Shadow $19.99 340 75% 10k $204k (exactly $203,898) Maze Theory
DISORDER $29.99 123 50% 3.7k $111k (exactly $110,663) GRUMPY
The Siege and the Sandfox $14.99 180 64% 5.4k $81k (exactly $80,946) Cardboard Sword
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Empire City $24.99 105 76% 3.2k $79k (exactly $78,718) Cortopia Studios
The Lacerator $9.99 161 99% 4.8k $48k (exactly $48,252) Games From The Abyss
Oxide Room 208 $29.99 22 31% 660 $20k (exactly $19,793) WildSphere

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.