Do I ship it?

Games › Action › Action + Western

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Western Action game?

Action + Western

Of 114 developers who shipped a Western Action game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 171 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $280k, ×451 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 171 games are announced against 64 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 171 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action + Western
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 114
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $1.2k → $1.3k → $1.4k → $1.4k → $1.4k → $449 (still earning) → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action + Western: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 114
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $11,389)
Top 5% $283k (exactly $283,058)
Developers, 2 yr 114
Released games 368
Announced 171
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Western
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Action; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action-Adventure, Adventure, Shooter
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 56,984 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $900, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $280k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 60 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 171 games are announced against 64 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair25 devs · median $14k · 30 announced
  3. + PinballFair42 devs · median $2.6k · 48 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair43 devs · median $1.8k · 40 announced
  5. + Football (American)Fair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  6. + BaseballFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  7. + BilliardsFair19 devs · median $958 · 25 announced
  8. + IdlerFair225 devs · median $898 · 292 announced
  9. + TennisFair23 devs · median $628 · 12 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair90 devs · median $599 · 110 announced
  11. + TabletopFair71 devs · median $505 · 86 announced
  12. + WuxiaPoor odds9 devs · median $189k · 36 announced

All 288 pairs on the Action page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Red Dead Redemption 2 2019 · $1.5B Hunt: Showdown 1896 2019 · $192M Fallout: New Vegas 2010 · $63M Red Dead Online 2020 · $36M Red Dead Redemption 2024 · $30M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Red Dead Redemption 2 older $59.99 846,270 92% 25M $1.5B (exactly $1,523,032,119) Rockstar Games
Hunt: Showdown 1896 older $29.99 213,023 74% 6.4M $192M (exactly $191,656,793) Crytek
Fallout: New Vegas older $9.99 211,748 95% 6.4M $63M (exactly $63,460,876) Obsidian Entertainment
Red Dead Online older $19.99 59,572 82% 1.8M $36M (exactly $35,725,328) Rockstar Games
Red Dead Redemption $49.99 20,294 92% 609k $30M (exactly $30,434,912) Rockstar Games, Double Eleven
Far Far West · EA $19.99 31,458 95% 944k $19M (exactly $18,865,363) Evil Raptor
Evil West older $49.99 10,215 74% 306k $15M (exactly $15,319,436) Flying Wild Hog
Desperados III older $39.99 11,880 96% 356k $14M (exactly $14,252,436) Mimimi Games
War of Rights · EA older $29.99 13,441 88% 403k $12M (exactly $12,092,868) Campfire Games
Call of Juarez: Gunslinger older $14.99 20,869 94% 626k $9.4M (exactly $9,384,789) Techland
Mohrta $19.99 1,482 91% 44k $889k (exactly $888,755) Scumhead, Osiol
Last Train Outta' Wormtown $11.99 1,453 96% 44k $523k (exactly $522,644) Get(Color) Games
Alaska Gold Fever $16.99 959 79% 29k $489k (exactly $488,802) Baked Games
Soulslinger: Envoy of Death $19.99 472 63% 14k $283k (exactly $283,058) Elder Games
Tombwater $24.99 282 92% 8.5k $211k (exactly $211,415) Moth Atlas
Outlaws + Handful of Missions: Remaster $29.99 230 93% 6.9k $207k (exactly $206,931) LucasArts, Nightdive Studios
Bounty Star $24.99 159 65% 4.8k $119k (exactly $119,202) DINOGOD
Golden Chambers · EA $19.99 195 80% 5.9k $117k (exactly $116,941) Mr. Pink

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.