Do I ship it?

GamesActionAction + Visual Novel

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Visual Novel Action game?

Action + Visual Novel

Of 260 developers who shipped a Visual Novel Action game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 322 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.0k, ×6.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×353 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 322 games are announced against 144 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 322 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action + Visual Novel
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 260
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.7k → $5.4k → $6.1k → $5.6k → $4.0k → $4.8k → $2.1k (still earning) → $1.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action + Visual Novel: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 260
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $4.0k (exactly $3,957)
Top 25% $30k (exactly $29,680)
Top 5% $222k (exactly $221,889)
Developers, 2 yr 260
Released games 1,099
Announced 322
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Action, Visual Novel; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, Dating Sim
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 96% positive over 187,059 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $4.0k, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $220k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 8 in 10 of the 187 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 322 games are announced against 144 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair25 devs · median $14k · 30 announced
  3. + PinballFair42 devs · median $2.6k · 48 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair43 devs · median $1.8k · 40 announced
  5. + Football (American)Fair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  6. + BaseballFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  7. + BilliardsFair19 devs · median $958 · 25 announced
  8. + IdlerFair225 devs · median $898 · 292 announced
  9. + TennisFair23 devs · median $628 · 12 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair90 devs · median $599 · 110 announced
  11. + TabletopFair71 devs · median $505 · 86 announced
  12. + WuxiaPoor odds9 devs · median $189k · 36 announced

All 288 pairs on the Action page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dispatch $29.99 174,624 97% 5.2M $157M (exactly $157,109,213) AdHoc Studio
Library Of Ruina older $29.99 40,605 94% 1.2M $37M (exactly $36,532,318) ProjectMoon
Senren*Banka older $34.99 33,721 98% 1.0M $35M (exactly $35,396,934) YUZUSOFT
The Walking Dead older $14.99 53,650 97% 1.6M $24M (exactly $24,126,405) Telltale Games
Danganronpa: Trigger Happy Havoc older $19.99 36,194 96% 1.1M $22M (exactly $21,705,542) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd., Abstraction G… (Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd., Abstraction Games)
Digimon Story Cyber Sleuth: Complete Edition older $49.99 10,810 89% 324k $16M (exactly $16,211,757) h.a.n.d., Inc., Media.Vision Inc.
The Wolf Among Us older $14.99 32,494 97% 975k $15M (exactly $14,612,552) Telltale
MELTY BLOOD: TYPE LUMINA older $49.99 9,130 88% 274k $14M (exactly $13,692,261) FRENCH-BREAD, TYPE-MOON, Lasengle Inc.,… (FRENCH-BREAD, TYPE-MOON, Lasengle Inc., TAMSOFT CORPORATION, GameLoop Inc.)
BlazBlue Centralfiction older $39.99 9,476 94% 284k $11M (exactly $11,368,357) Arc System Works
Sword Art Online: Fatal Bullet older $19.99 15,461 79% 464k $9.3M (exactly $9,271,962) Dimps Corporation
Denshattack! $19.99 2,910 98% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,745,127) Undercoders
Ys X: Nordics $59.99 890 76% 27k $1.6M (exactly $1,601,733) Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH
Nunholy $7.99 5,150 88% 155k $1.2M (exactly $1,234,455) Chowbie
In Falsus $39.99 788 89% 24k $945k (exactly $945,364) lowiro
Spooky Milk Life · EA $11.99 1,216 74% 36k $437k (exactly $437,395) MangoMango, Studio Ginkgo
Ys X: Proud Nordics $69.99 168 75% 5.0k $353k (exactly $352,750) Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH
Agatha Christie - Death on the Nile $39.99 221 78% 6.6k $265k (exactly $265,134) Microids Studio Lyon
The Coma 2B: Catacomb $14.99 584 75% 18k $263k (exactly $262,625) Dvora Studio Co., Ltd.
Bright Lord $14.99 508 80% 15k $228k (exactly $228,448) KissKiss Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.